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Erik Smith
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California
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Pizza Box Football » Forums » News
8th Annual Prediction for the Big Game from Pizza Box Football Players' Results
Special thanks go to all of the players who played Baltimore vs. San Francisco in advance and sent us their results in Pizza Box Football's (now 8th) Annual Predict the Winner event for the Big Game. I am tremendously grateful once again to the hundreds of players all over the world who have participated. Our players send the results and we compile them. Their results have now become this year’s prediction!

Without further ado, here's what the results sent in are telling us about this year’s game:

- San Francisco wins 74% of games

- PBF Line is San Francisco by 7*

Prediction: San Francisco 28, Baltimore 17**

Other fun data:

- The magic number appears to be 24 points. Teams scoring 24 or more points have won more than 92% of the games.

- San Francisco wins 88% of games when scoring 22 or more

- Baltimore has a slight edge if the game stays close [a difference of 6 or fewer points], winning 20% more of those games than San Francisco

- A low-scoring game favors Baltimore. San Francisco did not win games when the combined score was below 32 points. In a game where 51 or more total points are scored, Baltimore still wins 43% of games.

We hope you'll enjoy the game. If San Francisco wins, then our predictions from Pizza Box Football players’ results will again take the lead vs. Madden’s. To date the only ones we’ve missed have been New York vs. New England.

May you enjoy playing Pizza Box Football for years to come!

All the best,

Erik Smith
On The Line Game Company
The Makers of Pizza Box Football
and Pizza Box Baseball
www.PizzaBoxFootball.com

P.S. If we were predicting a Baltimore victory (we're not) it would be Balimore 23, San Francisco 17.

* Note: Our players’ results like San Francisco more than the current line of 4. We also have an over/under at 44.2, which is under the 48 I have seen posted.

** Note: Our score predictions are determined by the average scores in the games won by the teams during the event. Unless a team consistently wins by a narrow margin, our prediction will usually provide a margin greater than a TD. I also now push the prediction's score toward the lumpier football scoring numbers, and not predict something like 25-19.

P.P.S. I also greatly enjoy reading all of the game commentary players send me, and I also link to some of those session reports on Twitter. (To see them, follow @otlgames or use the hashtag #pbf.)

Links to prior predictions

2011 - New York vs. New England
http://www.boardgamegeek.com/thread/761096/pizza-box-footbal... -f

2010 - Green Bay vs. Pittsburgh
http://www.boardgamegeek.com/thread/616277/pizza-box-footbal...

2009 - New Orleans vs. Indianapolis
http://www.boardgamegeek.com/thread/488517/new-orleans-vs-in...

2008 – Pittsburgh vs. Arizona
http://www.boardgamegeek.com/thread/377693/pizza-box-footbal...

2007 – New York vs. New England
http://www.boardgamegeek.com/thread/287622/official-predicti...

2006- Indianapolis vs. Chicago
http://www.boardgamegeek.com/thread/149872/2nd-annual-big-ga...

2005 – Pittsburgh vs. Seattle
http://www.boardgamegeek.com/thread/99705/pbf-sbxl-results
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Todd Woodward
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Wonderful job Eric, please keep up the good work!
 
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Erik Smith
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First, let me congratulate Ravens fans. It's unfortunate to be on the losing side of this prediction.

As much as I enjoyed the game, I was mystified by San Francisco's choice to run 3 straight passing plays from the 5.

Thanks again to everyone who sent in scores. I had fun compiling them to make this year's prediction.

All the best,

Erik
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Alec Clair
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Unfortunately, for the first time since I own Pizza Box Football, I didn't find the time to play for the annual Big Game Prediction.

I expect to be with you next year.
Very pleased to see the continuous suport for the game

regards
 
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Scott Smith
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eriksmith wrote:
As much as I enjoyed the game, I was mystified by San Francisco's choice to run 3 straight passing plays from the 5.


Trying to catch the defense in Run Blitz?
 
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