Ok, so I'm a math geek, let me just get that out in the open from the beginning. I've come up with an idea for analyzing the board before initial placement, and I wanted to get some feedback.

I took what I consider an "average" mix of purchases for a player over an entire game: 3 Dev Cards, 4 Settlements, 3 Cities, 5 Roads. I then calculate how much of each resource will be needed to purchase all of this: 9 Brick, 9 Wood, 13 Wheat, 12 Ore, 7 Sheep. Then, I fudge a couple of numbers and divide by 3 to get easier to use numbers:

4 - Wheat, Ore
3 - Brick, Wood
2 - Sheep

I think of these as "global demand" numbers for the different resources throughout the game. To compute how "available" resources will be throughout the game, add up all the dots on the board for each resource and divide by the demand numbers above. You end up with an "availability index" for each resource; the higher the index the more available, the lower the index the more scarce (and hence valuable).

The way you use this index is up to you. Personally, I think just having a clear idea of what will be "cheap" to trade for and what will be hard to trade for is very useful.

For example: say 2 of the ore tiles get bad numbers and 1 gets a nice number. Then ore should have a very low index because its demand is 4 and there is not much supply. Nabbing that nice ore spot should give you a lot of trading leverage throughout the game.

However, placing only on resources with low availability is not necessarily the way to go (you could end up with terrible numbers or a strange mix of resources like brick and ore).

I realize that as actual settlements and cities show up on the board, the true "supply" no longer is total dots on the board for that resource, but I think the concept is still useful. Also, if you have a particular strategy in mind that you are set on using, this may not be as helpful...

Comments? How would you use the index to influence your placements?