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Dan Ryan
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The Settlers of Catan » Forums » Strategy
Availability Index
Ok, so I'm a math geek, let me just get that out in the open from the beginning. I've come up with an idea for analyzing the board before initial placement, and I wanted to get some feedback.

I took what I consider an "average" mix of purchases for a player over an entire game: 3 Dev Cards, 4 Settlements, 3 Cities, 5 Roads. I then calculate how much of each resource will be needed to purchase all of this: 9 Brick, 9 Wood, 13 Wheat, 12 Ore, 7 Sheep. Then, I fudge a couple of numbers and divide by 3 to get easier to use numbers:

4 - Wheat, Ore
3 - Brick, Wood
2 - Sheep

I think of these as "global demand" numbers for the different resources throughout the game. To compute how "available" resources will be throughout the game, add up all the dots on the board for each resource and divide by the demand numbers above. You end up with an "availability index" for each resource; the higher the index the more available, the lower the index the more scarce (and hence valuable).

The way you use this index is up to you. Personally, I think just having a clear idea of what will be "cheap" to trade for and what will be hard to trade for is very useful.

For example: say 2 of the ore tiles get bad numbers and 1 gets a nice number. Then ore should have a very low index because its demand is 4 and there is not much supply. Nabbing that nice ore spot should give you a lot of trading leverage throughout the game.

However, placing only on resources with low availability is not necessarily the way to go (you could end up with terrible numbers or a strange mix of resources like brick and ore).

I realize that as actual settlements and cities show up on the board, the true "supply" no longer is total dots on the board for that resource, but I think the concept is still useful. Also, if you have a particular strategy in mind that you are set on using, this may not be as helpful...

Comments? How would you use the index to influence your placements?
Last edited on 2008-07-23 08:07:04 CST (Total Number of Edits: 1)
Geoff Burkman
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It's an interesting premise, although I think you might need some more concrete evidence of what an "average" mix of purchases is over the course of a game. I suspect you may be low on your assessment of development card purchases (a player will most likely need to buy at least 4 or 5 to secure Largest Army), as well as roads, and high on settlements (usually, one only needs to build two or three more beyond the starting settlements). Nonetheless, I think you've still come up with an accurate ranking of the five resources.

Honestly, I don't see much use for the index. Given a normal board, we already know that ore and brick are in shorter supply than the other resources, and thus both have their own pre-eminence depending on whether one adopts an Ore-Wheat strategy (cities and cards) or a Brick-Wood strategy (roads and settlements). An index is superfluous in telling me that if ore hexes comprise a "6", "4", and "2", I'm going to want to locate a settlement on that "6" hex if I can. Likewise, if there's an intersection next to "6", "5", and "9" hexes, I'm going to grab that spot pretty much regardless of what the resources are.

Beyond that, everything depends on how many players there are, and what one's turn order is. If I'm going 4th, how much help is this index going to offer me? I still need to maximize my resource potential, hopefully with a good mix of numbers, and different resources. I don't need an index for that.
Matt Blackburn
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Uh, your analysis of what the average player builds is off pretty badly.

How do you build 4 settlements with 5 roads? You're capable of setting up two forks both times so each one just costs 1 road and then one extra for kicks?

Also, the setup would never win, ever. 5 will never get longest road. 3 dev cards would only yield largest army ~1 time in 64/343. Still, that only gives you 9 points.

I don't know why it's important to know what the losers built. Since I'm playing to win, I want a resource blend that's likely to let me win. Even people who choose slots independently of resources (people who maximize numbers or people who maximize resources) trade selectively for what they need.



At the very least, you should plan on 1.5 roads/settlement at least. Your first two settlements should cost you 2-3 roads, but after that they'll likely cost you two each, especially if you built out late.


If you go ore/grain for dev cards, you'll likely need 3 settlements and 5 roads, 3 cities, and a 5 dev cards (for largest army). That's 8 sheep, 8 wood/brick, 14 wheat, and 14 ore. If you get a VP, you can instead upgrade a city or build another settlement.

If you go wood/brick for longest road, you'll get probably 5 settlements, 11 roads at least, 1 city, and 0 development cards.

That's 3 ore, 7 wheat, 5 sheep, 16 brick/wood
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