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UPDATED province evaluation
Well, its been a few months, and I have played a lot more. I decided I'd update my evaluations:
This is how I would rate the provinces, and an estimated bid worth. This is for the first half. I nthe second half, income is much less important, and the number of pyramids on the provinces is such a huge factor that it overweigs other stuff.
In the 'bid I would make' category, If average province quality is high, I go on the low end of the given bid range, since there are more good things to get, so less need to pay to get it. If province quality is bad, especially where there is one or more particularly bad provinces like Dakhal, I go on the high end.
So 6? on Buto means 6, unless very high province quality, then 3. 3 or 6 is a bit weaker than this, then 3, and so on. It choose to make a strong 3 bid before a 6? bid.
Round 1: (grade) (APPROXIMATE bid I would make)
(Best to worst: )
Abu: A+ (strong 6)
Buto: A (6?)
Avaris: B+ (6?)
Berenike: B (3 or 6)
Kharga: B- (strong 3)
Thebes: B- (3)
Memphis: C+ (1)
Baharya: C (1?)
Amarna: C (0)
Buto: C (0)
Mendes: C- (0)
Edfu: D (0?)
Damanhur: D- (-1)
Abydos: D- (-1)
Dakhla: F (-3)
The negative ratings on those really bad ones means that I will pay more just to avoid them, and it would increase the chance that I would make a strong bid on something (like 6 on somehting I might normally bid 3 on), just to avoid getting stuck with this, expecting that others will also bid strongly, and pay money, so I wont fall behind everyone much, except for the one person who takes the crap province for 0.
Modifications:
Two or more camel provinces increases the rating of all camel provinces by a grade level, and makes them all a strong 6. Also, Dakhla, Berenike make them a little bit better.
Lots of heavy farmer provinces (4+ farmers), makes them a bit worse.
A province that is alone on its side of the river, ESPECIALLY if its the side without Memphis, is increased in value to due less competition for most pyramids on a side.
2nd round:
Berenike: A (strong 3)
Memphis: B+ (3)
Abu: B+ (3)
Avaris: B (3?)
Buto: B (3?)
Kharga: B- (1 or 3)
Damanhur: B- (1)
Thebes: B- (1)
Baharya: C (1?)
Edfu: C- (0)
Amarna: C- (0)
Dakhla: D (0)
Buto: D (0)
Abydos: D (-1)
Mendes: F (-3)
At this point, a bunch more things come into play:
Obviously, the total # camel provinces vs farmer provinces matters like before.
If the sacrifice was 1 in round 1, the farmers are money starved and wont be able to drive it up. This increases the value of non-farmer provinces, especially camels, decreases it for farmers.
If the sacrifice was 3 in round 1, the farmers are rich and the camel players got screwed. This greatly increases the value of farming / decreases camels. It also increases temples.
If you have an '8' bonus card, it increases the value of non or low income provinces like Dakhla. If you have a +1 per farmer card, it increases the high farmer provinces value.
Depending on what scoring power cards you have, various provinces get metter or worse. Since the provinces values are closer together, this will play a bigger role in determining which province to get, in this round.
A province on the same side of the river as your previous province is slightly better, because it decreases competition for most pyramids on that side. (In addition to helping with the one side power card).
Having more than 1 card of purchase power already decreases the value of province with this ability.
A second camel province is bad.
Round 3:
Dakhla: A+ (strong 6, maybe 10)
Damanhur: A (strong 3)
Memphis: A (3)
Berenike: B+ (3)
Edfu: B (3)
Amarna: C+ (1)
Thebes: C+ (1)
Abu: C+ (1)
Avaris: C (1?)
Buto: C (0)
Kharga: C- (0)
Baharya: D (-1)
Abydos: D (-1)
Buto: F (-3)
Mendes: F (-3)
Having an 8 card eliminates the value of camel provinces, Abu, Baharya, and Berenike, since you want to have it give no income and play an 8 on it.
If you sense a bidding war in the sacrifice, to win most on a side, then farmers and esecially temples are better / camels worse. If you sense a push coming to drive up temple values, the same. Bonus point powercards will be a heavy factor in which province you want.
Baharya is significantly better if you sense a temple push, or if you have the '9 farmers' bonus point card. Thats the only province you will probably see get more than 2 farmers this round.
In the second half, income is less important, temples are more important, and pyramids on the provinces are EXTREMELY important.