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Subject: Try This at Home (and win 50 GeekGold) rss

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Manchuwok
Canada
Mission
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Hey eveyone, I need some help with a little problem and I'd like to give some bag away as well.

I am interested in knowing the probability of the various resting states of meeples when they are rolled like dice. I am interested in three different states:

A) Lying flat
B) On a side (any non-flat, non-upright state)
C) Standing Upright

I can roll meeples until my extremities are numb, but I'd really like to know how the numbers look when a variety of people with different surfaces, rolling styles, humerus lengths, number of fingers, etc give it a try.

ANY HELP IS APPRECIATED!!!!

Please use your normal playing surface, and post results as a series of three digit numbers (e.g. 311 = 3 flat, 1 side, 1 upright). I'm interested in numbers for each of 1,2,3,4, and 5 meeples rolled. I am most interested in Carcassonne sized meeples, so please use them (or identical) when rolling. Roll as many times with each number of meeples as you want to, but with a bare minimum of 25 rolls.

Thanks in advance for any help. A random submitter gets 50 bag! All others get my eternal gratitude. Anyone going way beyond the call of duty may get a rulebook mention. Prize will be awarded in about a month.

Example, to make sure you know what I'm looking for (flat, side, upright):

5 Meeples:
311
401
221
122
113
104
410
401
...

4 Meeples:
211
301
121
112
...

3 Meeples:
111
102
021
300
...

2 Meeples:
200
101
110
020
...

1 Meeple:
100
100
010
...
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Andrew Tullsen
United States
Tigard
Oregon
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5 Meeples
230
230
500
410
221
140
320
410

4 Meeples
400
310
211


3 Meeples
201
300
102
300
120
210


2 Meeples
101
020
101

1 Meeple
100
100
100
100
100


* I used yellow meeples.
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Tim Mirkes
United States
La Crosse
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I'll totally be interested in helping, as I'm currently nursing a running injury and have lots of time resting my leg. One question before I start tossing Carc meeples, however: aren't there more potential results than 3 for a thrown meeple?

Balanced head and arm
Balanced arm and leg
Upright
Flat

And technically, all of these except for "upright" have 2 possible results (one for each side of the meeple), for a total possible group of 7 results:

Flat side A
Flat side B
Balanced head and arm left
Balanced head and arm right
Balanced arm and leg left
Balanced arm and leg right
Upright

Does that matter, or are you looking more for the validity of the shape as a randomizer?
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Travis Dean
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It looks like for now he doesn't care about flat side A or flat side B (equivalent for this test) and doesn't care about "balanced head and arm" or "balanced arm and leg" as for this test they are considered equivalent.
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David J. Mortimer
United Kingdom
Melksham
Wiltshire
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5 Meeples
221
320
320
140
041
311
230
230
221
230

4 Meeples
121
211
220
112
310
220
301
121
400
220

3 Meeples
102
210
300
120
210
021
021
210
210
120

2 Meeples
020
200
110
110
110
011
020
101
110
110

1 Meeple
100
100
100
001
100
100
010
010
010
010

Good luck. Interesting mechanic concept.

Edit: I used blue Meeples if that is of relevance
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Stephan Rothschuh
Germany
Munich
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3 green meeples (with the Carcassone stickers on them) were rolled on a very slippery veneer tabletop

300
310
310
300
201
120
300
201
300
210
201
300
120
210
120
210
300
111
120
210
120
300
300
111
210
012
210
111
201
210
201
210
210
300
102
300
300
300
210
300
210
210
300
210
120
111
300
210
120
210
300
300
300
012
210
210
300
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Chris Harkey
United States
Houston
Texas
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Blue meeples were rolled on a wooden table.

5 Meeples
131
131
302
221
320
320
311
221
122
320
320
410
311
401
401
230
320
221
302
311
410
230
212
500
320

4 Meeples
310
121
220
310
130
220
400
301
310
400
301
211
202
022
310
112
400
112
130
310
220
301
130
301
220

3 Meeples
201
210
210
210
210
300
210
300
300
300
111
300
210
102
111
210
300
300
210
120
210
201
210
201
120

2 Meeples
200
200
101
200
110
110
200
101
011
101
110
200
200
110
110
200
200
110
200
200
101
020
110
200
101

1 Meeple
100
100
100
100
100
100
010
100
100
100
010
100
010
010
010
100
100
001
010
100
010
001
100
010
100


Good Luck!
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Manchuwok
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Mission
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tlmirkes wrote:
I'll totally be interested in helping, as I'm currently nursing a running injury and have lots of time resting my leg. One question before I start tossing Carc meeples, however: aren't there more potential results than 3 for a thrown meeple?

Balanced head and arm
Balanced arm and leg
Upright
Flat

And technically, all of these except for "upright" have 2 possible results (one for each side of the meeple), for a total possible group of 7 results:

Flat side A
Flat side B
Balanced head and arm left
Balanced head and arm right
Balanced arm and leg left
Balanced arm and leg right
Upright

Does that matter, or are you looking more for the validity of the shape as a randomizer?


Astute observation. However, for this test I'm interested in the three groupings only. Flat side A and Flat side B will be 50/50 if meeples are manufactured with acceptable uniformity. And while you are correct that there is more than one "side" configuration possible, practically in a gameplay situation that distinction is much harder to instantly recognize than the three I've decided to use. At a later point I may want to evaluate the breakdown of "side".

Keep the rolls coming everyone!!!!
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Andy Knudsen
United States
Nampa
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Hopefully this helps. It will be interesting to compare my results to others'.

5 Meeples:

311
221
410
320
311
401
140
410
320
221

500
230
320
500
401
311
311
320
302
410

311
311
311
320
320
410
410
410
140
410

410
500
401
311
131
500
320
311
320
131

Likelihood of a:
Flat: 64%
Side: 27%
Upright: 9%


4 Meeples:

301
220
211
211
400
220
400
121
220
400

211
310
310
310
301
400
211
112
211
211

301
301
310
310
220
220
211
220
130
400

310
220
310
310
121
211
310
400
400
301

Likelihood of a:
Flat: 65%
Side: 24.4%
Upright: 10.6%


3 Meeples:

111
210
102
210
111
210
201
210
201
120

210
210
120
021
210
111
210
030
210
030

210
210
210
201
210
300
210
201
300
210

210
300
120
300
300
300
030
300
300
111

Likelihood of a:
Flat: 60%
Side: 30.8%
Upright: 9.2%


2 Meeples:

200
200
020
110
101
110
020
011
110
200

020
110
101
200
101
200
200
200
101
110

200
101
110
200
101
110
020
110
110
101

200
200
200
110
200
200
110
110
200
020

Likelihood of a:
Flat: 61.3%
Side: 28.8%
Upright: 10%


1 Meeple:

100
100
010
100
100
100
100
010
010
010

100
010
010
001
010
100
100
010
100
100

010
010
100
001
010
100
100
100
100
001

100
100
010
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

Likelihood of a:
Flat: 62.5%
Side: 30%
Upright: 7.5%

Overall likelihood of a:
Flat: 63.2%
Side: 27.5%
Upright: 9.3%


I used standard [EDIT: yellow] Carcassonne meeples for these rolls. I used a cardboard dice tower for half the rolls and a wood table for the other half.
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Martin Windischer
Austria
Innsbruck
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5 Meeples:

410
410
311
311
320
311
410
410
320
401

320
320
320
122
311
221
410
221
410
212

401
410
131
410
113
320
311
320
221
122

311
410
302
131
410
401
320
311
311
320

410
311
311
320
410
500
410
410
311
320

4 Meeples:

211
202
130
211
211
310
220
220
400
310

310
121
400
130
301
310
301
310
220
301

301
130
211
220
310
301
310
112
301
202

301
202
112
310
310
211
211
310
310
211

310
220
022
310
400
220
220
301
310
202

3 Meeples:

300
201
300
210
210
201
300
111
210
120

210
300
300
300
210
210
210
300
210
210

210
111
111
210
210
210
210
012
300
201

210
300
300
120
210
210
300
210
111
300

201
300
201
201
201
210
210
300
300
210

2 Meeples:

101
020
110
200
200
101
200
101
200
200

200
101
200
110
101
200
011
200
200
110

101
101
101
110
200
110
200
200
020
011

200
200
101
200
011
200
200
110
110
200

110
200
110
110
020
101
200
200
101
200

1 Meeple:

100
100
001
010
100
010
100
100
100
100

100
100
010
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

100
001
010
001
100
100
010
100
100
100

100
100
100
100
100
010
100
100
010
100

100
010
010
100
010
001
010
001
010
100

I used black standard meeples. Playing surface was a normal table made of wood.
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Manchuwok
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Mission
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I love how everyone is reporting the color of the meeples as if it made a difference!

Seriously, keep the numbers rolling in!!! This is great. BGG rocks!
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Travis Dean
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manchuwok wrote:
I love how everyone is reporting the color of the meeples as if it made a difference!

Seriously, keep the numbers rolling in!!! This is great. BGG rocks!


Purple meeples are statistically more likely to land on their heads. They're just more acrobatic like that.
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Tom
Netherlands
Utrecht
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Why not? And I'm not going to tell you I used yellow meeples.
5 happy meeples meeplemeeplemeeplemeeplemeeple :
131
230
311
050
500
320
320
230
320
221
221
410
041
320
212
311
320
410
320
230
311
410
410
212
410
401
410
320
311
140
410
320
410
410
401
410
320
212
500
230
320
410
410
230
500
221
320
230
410
410
230
140
230
221
311
212
311
212
230
410
500
230
311
023
410
221
311
320

Time to kill off one meeple then zombiemeeplemeeplemeeplemeeple :
310
211
400
130
310
220
310
301
400
220
211
400
220
211
211
220
310
400
400
400
211
211
211
022
211
211
031
400
301
040
310
130
220
220
220
301
121
220
112
310
310
400
220
400
220
211
400
310
310
310
130
211
310
220
211
400
112
121
400
310
220
310
400
220
310

One more bites the dust zombieninjameeplemeeplemeeple :
210
120
300
120
111
300
111
120
210
120
030
300
300
210
300
210
111
210
111
120
021
210
120
300
210
120

I'm getting a bit bored now. Hope this helps.
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Cyrus the Great
United States
Lexington
Kentucky
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Using black Carcassonne: Hunters and Gatherers meeples on wood veneer:

5 meeples
320
221
410
401
311
500
140
410
410
311
500
230
302
311
410
410
320
401
500
320
500
302
410
311
320
401
401
500
410
230
311
500
140
311
311
500
320
311
401
311
230
302
320
221
320
320
500
320
311
311
500
410
401
230
311

4 meeples:
310
400
220
220
301
301
211
310
400
310
400
400
220
211
220
310
220
310
400
301
301
400
301
301
211
400
310
400
310
400
400
220
301
301
211
400

I'll get more later.
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Eddy Richards
Scotland
Allanton
Duns
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BoardGameGeek » Forums » Board Game Design » Board Game Design
Re: Try This at Home (and win 50 GeekGold)
Red Carc meeples.

5 Meeples

302
500
410
320
230
311
410
311
230
410
410
311
500
311
410
500
410
320
320
320
311
410
221
410
230
203
311
311
230
311
230
410
410
311
410
320
311
221
212
221
401
410
410
410
320
401
131
311
401
410
320
230
410
230
131
410
320
410
410
410
320
320
320
410
500

I decided I'd carry on until I got 5 flat ones!

4 red meeples (sitting on a wall, and if one red meeple should accidentally fall, there's an 80% chance it will end up flat)

310
220
211
310
220
400
220
220
310
130
112
310
310
211
400
220
310
301
211
220
121
022
310
310
400

3 meeples

210
210
210
300
300
102
210
111
210
102
300
201
300
120
300
210
120
120
300
111
210
201
201
210
201

And that's it from me for tonight
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Russ Williams
Poland
Wrocław
Dolny Śląsk
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A) Lying flat
B) On a side (any non-flat, non-upright state)
C) Standing Upright

OK, for great science, using green standard Carcassonne meeples, 25 throws for each number of meeples from 5 down to 1...

5 meeples:
320
320
311
410
230

230
311
221
410
500

122
401
311
401
410

401
122
311
320
140

410
401
311
500
500

4 meeples:
130
112
130
301
220

220
022
400
400
220

301
310
220
211
301

112
310
211
310
202

310
400
121
211
310

3 meeples:
120
300
102
021
210

111
210
210
012
120

300
300
210
300
300

201
300
111
210
201

111
210
300
111
210

2 meeples:
200
011
200
110
020

200
101
110
200
110

110
020
110
200
020

101
200
110
200
110

200
110
110
200
200

1 meeple:
100
100
100
010
100

100
010
100
010
010

010
010
010
010
010

001
100
100
100
010

100
010
100
100
100
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Toco
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Vlaanderen
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manchuwok wrote:
Hey eveyone, I need some help with a little problem and I'd like to give some bag away as well.

I am interested in knowing the probability of the various resting states of meeples when they are rolled like dice. I am interested in three different states:

A) Lying flat
B) On a side (any non-flat, non-upright state)
C) Standing Upright

I can roll meeples until my extremities are numb, but I'd really like to know how the numbers look when a variety of people with different surfaces, rolling styles, humerus lengths, number of fingers, etc give it a try.

ANY HELP IS APPRECIATED!!!!

Please use your normal playing surface, and post results as a series of three digit numbers (e.g. 311 = 3 flat, 1 side, 1 upright). I'm interested in numbers for each of 1,2,3,4, and 5 meeples rolled. I am most interested in Carcassonne sized meeples, so please use them (or identical) when rolling. Roll as many times with each number of meeples as you want to, but with a bare minimum of 25 rolls.

Thanks in advance for any help. A random submitter gets 50 bag! All others get my eternal gratitude. Anyone going way beyond the call of ...
010
...


boardgameGEEK, perfect fit
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David J. Mortimer
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manchuwok wrote:
I love how everyone is reporting the color of the meeples as if it made a difference!

Seriously, keep the numbers rolling in!!! This is great. BGG rocks!


That's my fault I started that. I thought it might be statistically important, and amusing
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Andreas Pelikan
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Vienna
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I tried with 5 meeples (r,g,b,y,k) on a flat wooden table (IKEA Norden) without table cloth, Sorry for not recording the run, but I wanted to test limits. When rolling unbiased, odds felt like 7:5:2 for flat:sideways:upright (roughly). Through experimenting with rolling techniques, I found one method where I could consistently roll lots of flats: sometimes 3 but mostly 4 or 5 out of 5, never less that 3 in like 30 rolls (let them slide off the flat palm with a speed that lets them slide for 15-20cm).
I found no technique where I could consistently eliminate flats, and sideways:upright always felt pretty random, with higher probability for sideways.
From this experiment I'd suggest 'lots of flats' should not be a desirable result.

I remember Arno Steinwender and Wilfried Lepuschitz rolling meeples a lot for their Deukalion, with similar results. Their solution: upright 1 AP (attack point), sideways 1/2 AP, flat side 0 AP. Additionally, sticker-labeled flat side meeple goes to Hades.
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M J
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i do this all the time, to determine the startplayer for carcasone, its quite fun.

It is actually suprisngly easy to manipulate the outcome: for lots of standing up meeples, simply open your fistfull of meeples straight above the table. For a maximun amount of flat meeples, try to throw as hard as you can (without making the fly over the edge)

Here are my recording for a "fast run" using three meeeples, (grey ones from a carcassone expansion)
upright:sideways: flat
0:2:1
0:1:2
0:0:3
0:1:2
0:2:1
0:1:2
0:3:0
0:1:2
0:1:2
1:2:0

1:14:15

and here is me throwing the meeples as gently as i could

1:1:1
1:0:2
2:1:0
0:2:1
1:1:1
1:1:1
0:3:0
1:0:2
2:1:0
0:3:0

9:13:8


hope this is any use to you



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Gavan Brown
Canada
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I find the fact that you can manipulate outcomes with specific technique to make this mechanism MORE intriguing.
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Manchuwok
Canada
Mission
BC
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RoosterJuice wrote:
I find the fact that you can manipulate outcomes with specific technique to make this mechanism MORE intriguing.


Same here! Keep the results coming in, and if anyone else has insight to share on techniques that can lead to desired results, please share!
 
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Scott Westgard
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Illinois
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After rolling 5 (green) meeples under a cup 37 times, I finally got one meeple to be standing upright on TOP of a meeple laying flat....VICTORY.

meeple
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Manchuwok
Canada
Mission
BC
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Preliminary Results (don't stop rolling!):

After almost 5000 meeples rolled:

Flat: 63.03%
Side: 26.84%
Upright: 10.12%

Results vary a little bit depending on the number of meeples. I'll post a full analysis after the prize is awarded.

Thanks also to Tim, who sent me some detailed stats.
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Jonathan Ham
United States
Lewisville
Texas
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We do this to determine the starting player in Carcassonne as well. Most upright goes first, with ties broken by most on a side. Further ties are broken by re-roll between the tied players.

I'll use 2 different techniques here - first by rolling the meeples in both hands cupped together and dropping them on the table, then by rolling them in one hand like dice. 5 red meeples per trial, 30 trials per run, on a wooden desk. The felt-topped gaming table might produce different results. I'll do that later this week if I get bored enough.

2-handed drop
410
410
221
311
401
401
212
410
320
410
320
410
410
500
140
230
410
230
320
140
320
500
320
500
230
410
230
410
410
320

1-handed roll
230
221
410
311
500
410
311
311
410
410
212
401
311
401
410
212
131
410
230
230
410
410
410
230
320
401
221
230
410
500
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