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A.J. Porfirio
United States
Thompsons Station
Tennessee
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Ok so this may not appeal to the core audience of this blog, and then again, maybe it will. It is still about games afterall (but not Kickstarter really).
I want to talk about board gaming apps. First and foremost I want to offer up some disclaimers and info on my app playing experience. What follows is my opinion and based on and drawn from my own experiences. You aren't going to see any data to back up what I am saying. Basically, I could easily be 100% completely wrong. But this is what makes this discussion fun. I get to see if you all agree, disagree, or it is split down the middle.
Ok so to give you a point of reference, I play on iOS using an iPod Touch.
Here is a list of some, but not all games I have and play in order from Most Played (Top) to least played (bottom). This is all time and doesn't necessarily reflect what I am playing currently.
1. Ascension (and it isn't even close)
2. Dominion (unofficial)
3. Catan
4. Kingsburg
5. Elder Sign: Omens
6. Loot and Scoot (mostly cause my son likes it)
7. Tikal
8. Hive
9. Ticket to Ride
10. Nightfall
11. Caylus
12. Bohnanza
With the exception of Dominion and Nightfall, which I only recently acquired, I do not own any of the physical copies There are more, but I either haven't played yet or rarely played them.
So I'm not going to talk about how they work or anything like that. I want to talk about some of the impacts boardgaming apps may or may not have on the hobby or even their own physical board game.
Does having a board game app increase sales of the physical game?
So you don't have to read a lot of blogs or listen to a lot of podcasts to know that those with apps are claiming that it increases the sales of the physical game. When I look at my own activity, I don't find this to be the case at all. Totally anecdotal, but it got me thinking and contemplating, if what they are saying is true, why?
First, where I am coming from and why I don't feel the need to purchase the physical copy...
Of all the games I play on iOS, Ascension is by far my favorite. I have played over 400 games and play it daily. It is in my opinion the undisputed king of iOS board game apps. As much as I love it, I do not feel any compulsion to buy the physical copy of this, or the other iOS app games for a number of reasons:
1. I do not see any scenario in which the physical game can top or even meet what the app does in terms of experience. No shuffling, no drawing, automatically plays cards at the touch of a button. Asynch play, the list goes on and on. Having experienced the app, I am afraid the physical version would seem impossibly slow by comparison. (I confess I've never played the physical copy). Exceptions would be games with heavy player interaction.
2. Expense. It is hard to get past paying 20-50x as much for the same game in whatever form. Not saying never, but it will be rare for me. Typically if I want the physical game, I wanted it before I played the app. Or if the implementation of the app does not do the game justice perhaps that is a reason.
3. Try before buy. If there is an app coming up for a game I want, I will actually hold off on buying the physical copy until I try the app. Currently, Summoner Wars is the best example. I REALLY want this game. But I am just going to wait for the app, and I probably won't even need the physical copy if the app is good. Nightfall is the game to thank for this (more on that later).
So all of this adds up to essentially making it LESS (even FAR LESS) likely that I will purchase the physical copy of a game that I can play on iPod. Maybe I am weird, but actually I think there are more of you like me out there. But I also think that there are two other types of people out there as well. And one of those groups provides the key to why 'supposedly' (I have never seen data confirming what the publishers tell us) having a board game app results in more sales of the physical copy.
1. Hobby Gamer 1 (does not own game) - this is me. The guy who behaves as above. Not likely to purchase the physical game when the app can be had cheaper and perhaps be a better experience than the physical game.
2. Hobby Gamer 2 (owns the game) - there are those out there that own the game and/or have played the game and love it. I suspect these folks jump on the app in a heartbeat. A new medium, a new implementation of a game they really enjoy. Certainly they help app sales, but given they already own the game I think we can safely say they aren't driving any incremental sales of the physical copy.
3. Non-Hobby Gamer - and this could be broken down further, but for simplicity sake lets keep them in the same bucket. Maybe they are a video gamer of just an app gamer. At any rate they likely aren't aware of the hobby gaming world and what it has to offer. These are I think where additional sales of the physical copy would be coming from and it is a great thing as it is a contributor to growing and expanding our hobby. These players may ask themselves "This is a board game? Wow this could be a lot of fun to play with my friends. Maybe I should pick it up?" And so they do. And then they discover our world. Any of you reading this fit that bill?
So that is how I see it, I still struggle with how large is group 3 and for most apps if they are really that big. I am still leery of and unconvinced that, generally speaking, sales of the physical copies improve based on the app.
And this is probably REALLY a reach, but technically with a little wordsmithing you can say, "We have sold a lot more physical copies of the game since the app came out" and it could easily be tha you have sold more copies, not that you are selling more than you were before. Again, I don't think this is an industry where folks would be this deceptive to try to get sales, but this is a comment that could be misconstrued as to its actual meaning. Anyway, I digress...
So for me and those others in group 1 there is the potential that the app actually hurts the physical sales of a game. Enter Nightfall, Elder Sign, and others. These are games that fit my wheelhouse, at least at a glance. But having played the apps I now know they aren't my cup of tea. Not only will I now never purchase them, but I don't even really want to play them. Now don't get me wrong, Elder Signs is decent and the graphics are incredible. Nightfall is a bit of a cluster, and I know from some of the friends I play ascension with that this got deleted and rarely is played by MANY. It sadly just doesn't work Asynch at all.
But wait A.J., didn't you say you own Nightfall? Yes, I do actually. I bought it and Martial law 2nd hand at a local convention. RIGHT BEFORE THE APP CAME OUT. It is a mistake I won't make again. And sure I could try the physical game before I buy too, but I am not one of those people that won't ever buy anything unless they've played it, actually I do that quite a bit. But if there is an app around the corner, I will just wait as whether I like it or not, I probably won't need to get the physical game. Anyway, if you want to trade for Nightfall and Martial law, hit me up 
Now I probably seem like a real downer on iOS games right now, but trust me I love what is happening and that options are expanding. I also DON'T think that because apps may not result in incremental sales of the physical game that they aren't worth pursuing for the publishers. I suspect they make some money on their own. I would be more careful if I was a small publisher though, where the impact of mistakes is magnified. Be careful not to misjudge your resources and brand recognition when it comes to your App business strategy. I certainly would never recommend releasing an app and the physical copy of the sane game in tandem.
This is the app world as I see it, now feel free to blow me up and point out just how wrong I am on the subject.
Discuss.
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A.J. Porfirio
United States
Thompsons Station
Tennessee
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Ok so here we go... I may be jumping around here, I have a lot to comment on and I am 3/4 of the way through a 24 oz Dog Bite (a high alcohol beer) so take my comments with a grain of alcohol
A lot of interesting things have developed as of late... here are my thoughts in no particular order.
MEGA PROJECTS! OGRE and Zombicide both shattered the half a million dollar mark. Amazing, incredible... dangerous??? Hmmm so Zombice used the "dangling carrot" strategy better than any Kickstarter to date. Zpocalypse did as well to lesser effect, but Zombicide continued to offer stretch rewards that required a buy-up to get. I.E. you had to buy the character miniature, to get the stretch reward Zombie miniature. Not only that, they spoofed pop-icons such as Sam jackson, Chuck Norris, and the Penny Arcade guy. Brilliant marketing. But now expectations are astronomic. If Zombicide does not supplant Last Night on earth (and maybe Zpocalypse) as the best Zombie board game on the market, it will not (in my opinion) have met expectations (cool miniatures or not). As for Ogre, well it is Ogre right? I confess to not having played, but it is clearly a nostalgic favorite of many. That coupled with the Ogrenourmous box gimic and the brand power of Steve Jackson Games and you have a formula for the highest funded board game project in history (at least until they launch Car Wars).
Saturation is here... so I admit that there are officially more projects on the board game section than I can keep up with. When it was 50 or so I could manage it. Now it is over 70 (i think) and it is just too much to keep abreast of them all. So what does this mean to you as a prospective project owner? It means now more than ever you need to bring your A-game. You need to have your own network of backers, you need to have great graphics, a well presented project, and all your ducks in a row. The bar is raised with each successful project. Challenge yourself to raise it even higher!
Testing the market... So some new strategies have been tried. Some are working, some are not. Most notably, Ace of Spies was just canceled after attempting to set a funding goal that would accomplish economies of scale benefits allowing them to offer free shipping. I discuss my viewpoint on the subject with Richard Bliss on an upcoming Funding the dream podcast. The project had slowed to a snails pace or worse (in terms of funding), but with almost a month to go I am not entirely convinced that the project would not have met its goal. I suspect there were many out there like me that were waiting to pledge or increase their pledge when the final component list came out (if it did then I missed it, but I don't think it did). Also, there is a reason 30% is the magic number on Kickstarter... the "crowd" or the Kickstarter population, likes to see projects succeed. The ability to fund a project last minute is out there and can be seen. It will be interesting to see what happens when the project relaunches...
International shipping. Ok so Ace of Spies got me thinking about this one and so have other projects and just the subject in general. So ok, 98% of porjects charge extra for international shipping right? The same 98% charge nothing for domestic, U.S., shipping right? So projects are subsidizing U.S. shipping and requiring Internationals to pony up for the cost of shipping. Wait, so something is off here right? So we can all probably agree the cost to ship a typical game in the US falls somewhere between 5 and 10 bucks right? So 98% of projects are willing to subsidize (or build this into) the reward levels. But doesn't it feel like the added cost required of international shipping is the full amount? It seems fair that the project owners should subsidize the same 5-10 bucks for international shipping as they do for domestic! So if you calculate an average of $30 to ship international then it makes sense that you'd ask for $20 to cover shipping. I think what we've learned from Ace of Spies (who I applaud for trying some unprecedented strategies) is not that internationals need FREE shipping, but that they DESERVE FAIR shipping. Subsidize them at the same rate you do your domestic backers.
Entitlement and covering the entire print run. Ok so I may run the risk of drawing the ire of some of my design counterparts and peers with this one, but I think it needs to be said. So of late the GOALS of some projects have been FAR beyond what seems reasonable to produce a minimum print of a game. Now I don't disagree at ALL with the desire of publishers to achieve funding that allows for greater economies of scale (basically a lower per unit cost, for those unaware of what that means), but I'm not sure I feel great about what feels like a growing expectation that the backers be solely responsible for making it happen. Even the best, most well presented games have the potential of turning out to be a dog or something that sits in the garage of the designer or publisher. Don't ask for $30k when you can print a 1000 copies for $12k. Said another way, don't assume demand (and thus scale); adjust when you achieve it. Also, I think if you are passionate about your game or project, you should be prepared to contribute a fair proportion of the cost IF NECESSARY. There are TONS of projects of late that have overfunded by large amounts and there is plenty of money for a print and then some! But there are also projects that set goals of the minimum they need with themselves covering the remainder to be able to produce the game. I am of the opinion that a publisher/designer should be willing to cover 30-40% of the printing cost IF NECESSARY. It isn't a matter of "Do you have skin in the game?", but one of "Are you willing to put skin in the game?". I hope I am making sense here...
A kickstarter metric I would like to see on the Dashboard. I think a really cool pareto to see would be backers by # of projects pledged. In other words, what % of backers is it their first project? How many have backed 1-5?, 6-10, 10+? I think it would be very interesting to see how many NEW KS backers are brought in by each project (other than manually counting the backer tab which is unreasonable).
And speaking of stats! If you have not seen Kicktraq.com you need to go and check it out. Amazing site showing trends and data for all the projects. Many of the charts you will see I was tracking manually when If I'm Going Down... was live on KS. No amount of text can convey the work put in to produce the charts. Now Kicktraq does it for you. Great site!
Ok so I think that is enough to put out there for now... thoughts? Comments? Opinions?
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A.J. Porfirio
United States
Thompsons Station
Tennessee
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Recently, Richard Bliss aka The Game Whisperer released his 50th episode of Funding the Dream, in which he discusses the state of Kickstarter for board games and gives a sort of go forward forecast. This is my response to some of the thoughts and comments shared by Richard in the episode. If you haven't heard it, I highly recommend this and all other episodes which can be found here: www.buzzsprout.com/4646
First and foremost, congratulations to Richard on 50 episodes! I consider Richard a friend and I am a great admirer of his work. Any cotrarian views within this commentary are certainly not anything but an alternative viewpoint, but it is no secret to anybody (Richard included) that I don't have a problem stating my opinion.
A brief synopsis of the key points made by Richard
(in no particular order)
1. Kickstarter is here to stay...
2. ...but the landscape is ever-changing
3. Richard currently does not like these strategies:
A. Stretch Goals
B. Customization (i.e. card with artwork of backer's likeness)
4. The boardgame industry is broken (before Kickstarter). A Tsunami is coming... the Boardgame industry will radically and rapidly change. The Gatekeeper can no longer guard the gate...
5. New publishers/designers should embrace new distribution models with an online focus - specifically on Amazon, NOT traditional game store distribution. Driver: Supply pressure. Market is being flooded with supply.
Van Ryder Games responds
1. Kickstarter is here to stay...
I very much agree with this... at least for the foreseeable future. If anything, I think there may be competitive pressure as others develop sites that try to do crowd funding better. Kickstarter has too much of a head start you say? Yeah tell that to MySpace.
2. ...but the landscape is ever-changing
Yes it most certainly is! Think of how different projects are now than they were just 6 months ago. The bar continues to be raised an projects now routinely fund in the 10's of thousands with several recent ones eclipsing 100k where only one (D-Day Dice) had previously. Reward creativity continues to evolve and stretch goals are now the norm. Some are pressing the envelope on international shipping offering discounted or free shipping. The key thing to remember is that it will continue to change!
3. Richard currently does not like these strategies:
A. Stretch Goals
I disagree with Richard on stretch goals... sort of. I think that as the show is presented as an educational tool for prospective project owners. Stretch Goals however you feel about them SEEM to work at driving additional funding. I say "SEEM" because it is so hard to find an example of projects in the boardgame space that did not offer stretch goals once they were funded. I do feel confident that stretch goals provide additional pledges because they increase the value of the pledge to the backer. You can find entire threads on the "ROI" of pledging right here on the Geek for some games. I know for a fact there was one for D-Day dice since there were so many stretch goals. So my viewpoint as someone who presents information to prospective project owners is that Stretch goals are a valid strategy for increasing funding after reaching 100%.
B. Customization (i.e. card with artwork of backer's likeness)
This one I am torn on and it is purely because of my own experience doing this exact thing for If I'm Going Down.... I offered several levels that allowed backers to be "drawn into the game" either as a Character or a Zombie. Well most just wanted to provide the concept not necessarily their own likeness. Anyway, I can say unequivocally that this has caused delays in getting the game to backers. So much so that I am unlikely to have such rewards on any future projects. On the flip side, these levels were for big support $150 - $200 pledges and for my game equated to over 10% of pledges. Now I know these games now funding at $50k, a grand or 2 less doesn't mean much, but for my project it was huge. I guess the big question is could I have gotten people to back at higher levels with a different reward that would not cause production delays. Probably.
4. The boardgame industry is broken (before Kickstarter). A Tsunami is coming... the Boardgame industry will radically and rapidly change. The Gatekeeper can no longer guard the gate...
Now before you balk at this and start dropping F-bombs toward Richard or myself, know that it looks a lot worse printed here than when Richard mentions it on the show. The context being that namely the industry is broken on the business side of things because the "flow of information" is stifled. Meaning not everyone with any old game idea can make a game. They have to get someone else (a publisher) to agree the game is good and agree to front the money to manufacture it. Not anymore with Kickstarter. Now many will say that this is just going to result in a lot more games, not a lot more GOOD games. Perhaps that is true, and if the industry is "broken" now, is it going to still be "broken" in the future but in a different way? There are many places you can find points on this debate, but I believe allowing more through (rather than less) is preferable. In the end, the end user - the people who play the games, should decide what they want to play. Kickstarter allows them that chance.
5. New publishers/designers should embrace new distribution models with an online focus - specifically on Amazon, NOT traditional game store distribution. Driver: Supply pressure. Market is being flooded with supply.
Alright so this is the big one. What about this notion that one should focus purely on online sales - namely on Amazon? Richard's view was clearly spurred by his recent discovery of how successful Cards Against Humanity has been using this approach. (Which by the way is staggering, and if true, likely makes it the most successful KickStarter board game to date, bar none). And this is where I want to debate the point. Cards Against Humanity does not fit the mold of what most consider to be a "hobby game" but more fits the mold of a "casual gamer's" game. Now, certainly it is for a mature audience, but it is ultimately a brilliant concept that has a built in marketing engine driving insane word-of-mouth referrals. I do not think that 95+% of the other KS games that have been funded can boast such an effect. I know IIGD can't. Why? Hobby games by definition serve a niche. Amazon is not a magical place that increases the number of people that enjoy hobby games. I know plenty of small publishers and independents that have their games on Amazon and have had nowhere near the effect that CAH has had.
Now I do agree that the old distribution model is outdated (though still viable) and that publishers should most certainly sell on Amazon or elsewhere online, but I think it is premature to totally ignore the potential benefits of Brick-and-Mortar retail. That said I completely agree that the competition for shelf space is higher than it has ever been. The small publishers that distinguish themselves outside of this space are the ones who will remain and be most successful.
So that's it. I may just take Richard up on his invitation to debate this on the show if he'll have me. I'm sure this "discussion" would be much better if it were done verbally.
Thanks and see you next post!
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A.J. Porfirio
United States
Thompsons Station
Tennessee
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One of the many fascinating things about Kickstarter is the sort of ecosystem of backers it has created. I am happy to be included in this ecosystem. You've probably seen tons of posts, comments, tweets, advice, etc. about backing projects and what led people to back a project. In all these discussions, it is almost always true that without fail, the contributors will make and argue there points purely from their own perspective. And can you really blame them? They are attached in some way... maybe they ran a project, maybe they backed one (or a hundred), or maybe they hate Kickstarter and don't get why anyone backs anything. But I think there is a lot to be gained by taking a step back, looking in on ourselves and try to see things from a perspective other than our own. So what I want to do is give you my perspective, but not to enlighten you or give you some nugget of knowledge or advice you can take away (although maybe you will), but so that you can tell ME how your perspective is different. How you look at projects differently, or how you perceive something I have judged a certain way as something entirely different.
I'm giving you my perspective in an attempt to get yours.
In a recent Twitter discussion about projects that have not met expectations, I made the comment that “…I own my decision to back the game.” A follower asked for an explanation. What I meant was that the information was all there, I had every opportunity to evaluate and decide if the project was something I would enjoy and to weigh any external factors in the decision. And after doing my due diligence I made the decision to back. I own the decision.
Now does that make me happy the game is something I don’t enjoy? Well, no, of course not. But I am not blaming the project owner for deceiving me either. Unless there was some sort of malice or blatant misrepresentation, I will own my enjoyment (or lack there of ) of a game that I decide to back.
It is true in fact, that I had high suspicions about the game, but backed anyway. Sometimes I back for other reasons besides just getting a good game. Scoff if you like, but it is true. Don’t mistake that to mean I will back a game I know is bad! It really just means if there are other reasons I am backing, I am ok taking a larger risk that the game won’t meet my expectations. If I feel very certain it won’t I would not back.
So with that, let me walk you through my process and what I look at when deciding to back a board game KS project.
Here is what I do or have done as part of my due diligence. It doesn’t mean I have done all of these every time, but it makes up sort of a playbook. I think understanding these things can really help us as project owners. We also look at things from our own perspective and we run or projects based on our own feelings of what we would like to see in a project. My challenge to you is to go outside your comfort zone and get other opinions and challenge if your way is really the best way.
Things I look at when deciding to back a KS:
Do I know the designer? It is true. As a designer myself, I like to support designers I know who have helped me in some form or fashion. Even if it is just a few bucks and actively promoting the project (arguably far more valuable than even a standard pledge) I want to help out.
The project page. It is the first thing you see. I look for a good presentation. If I see all text, there better be something really compelling. I look for clues that some time was spent preparing the page. If it looks like it was put together in 10 minutes, what are the chances the proper amount of time was put into developing the game?
The video. I know the KS people harp on the video, and I agree it is important, I am not as critical on the video. I mostly look for if there is one. The fact is most project owners are not film makers. I can forgive a lot with the video. In fact, I look much more at WHAT was presented, than how it was presented. Mostly, tell me about the game! It is worth mentioning that I don’t think that I have backed any project that did NOT have a video.
The content. What is the project sharing? Rules? A PnP version? Links to rules? The less content the more suspicious I am. Also the quality of the content must be considered. What kind of reviews are there? Do the rules seem half baked? Is the art done? How does it look?
The impulse buy. I admit I have backed without doing hardly any of this because of a theme or fantastic artwork. That may be ok if you are ok with the possibility that the game may not be fun for you. This can be a trap and it is one I have fallen into and now step back and evaluate things when I feel myself falling into it again.
Go below the surface. Yeah I may go in stealth mode and check out the designer/publisher, especially if I don’t know them. What is their activity on KS? BGG? Or Elsewhere? Have they backed other projects? What are they telling people on BGG (if anything) ? Are they advertising? Running a contest? I want to see if the project owner is working it. If they are busting there ass on the campaign, I can feel good they busted their ass on the game too. Sometimes it may be to the point of annoyance, but I’d rather see too many tweets or BGG posts than few or none at all.
So those are the things I look at. There is a lot of info to be had. If the project is run right, you should have plenty of information to make a decision to back. If you do NOT feel like you have enough information, well that should tell you something. You are backing at your own peril at that point.
Now we have all this information, but what does it mean? Well here is what certain things mean to me, and things that will effect whether I back or not. These may not apply to you or you may have some pet peeves that are entirely different. Please share them if you do.
No Rules. This one is huge for me. The largest of all failures is to not post rules and not explain your game. I prefer the complete rules, and they don’t have to be all pretty, but if there is a really great video detailing how the game works that can work too.
Twitter/Facebook presence. Not only a presence, but are they active. Particularly on Twitter for me. Now I have since learned there are those who show up a week before their project and disappear the second it is over. I’m now wary of these Kicktwits as I like to call them.
BGG presence. I am discovering more and more that this is a really critical one. I am extremely wary of those project owners I run across on BGG that have the “New User” designation. It isn’t everything, but I find that this is a red flag that the game may not be up to snuff.
Has the project owner backed other projects? I like to see project owners that have backed other projects. This says a lot to me, so much in fact that I am extremely unlikely to back a project if the owner has not backed any themselves. You do have to be careful sometimes, because some times a company may have a separate account for running projects. Example: Chris Kirkman has a Dice Hate Me account for their projects, but has backed many projects from his own account. When in doubt, don’t be scared to ask.
Rewards and project strategy. There are very strong opinions on the “right” way to do things. So much so there are entire threads on things such as backer cost vs. MSRP, exclusives vs. promos available later, early backer levels, and on and on. Most people fall on one side of the other on these things, but I suspect most folks are flexible on these items. Some of the ones who aren’t seem to go on crusades for their views, but I think most people swing further from the extreme views. Me? I like exclusives, I dislike early backer discounts, I’ll pay MSRP if the project interests me. I am not so hard set on any of these not to consider a project if it does it different than I prefer. I suspect most backers also weigh these things lightly compared to other more important items. You tell me, what do you think?
The funding goal. This is another one people don’t probably pay attention to but should. Sure people notice the far fetched off the wall high project goals. But I bet most don’t consider why some of the really low goals are so low. And what it may mean… If a project for a game has a goal that I know is not enough to get a small print run done, I will immediately question in my head the quality of production. If you are going to back a game with a $4,000 or less goal, heck maybe even less than $10k. I would ask the project owner what the production plans are. Don’t be surprised if you fund a $4k project and you get horrible production quality, a print on demand game, or something worse… Basically, evaluate the funding goal and make an assessment as to whether it makes sense for what the project is trying to accomplish. If it doesn’t, ask questions.
Put it all together, make a decision, and OWN it.
Look at all of the information you have and if the project interests you enough to “pay the asking price” go for it! But don’t back unless you intend to see it through. If you still aren’t sure, wait until you are. I can tell you first hand it sucks quite a bit when backers drop their support. Own your decision and stand by it.
Be judicious in your decision, but enthusiastic with your support. A vocal backer willing to spread the word is worth far more than a silent one. If you really believe in a particular project, be that voice for the project!
Don’t be afraid to ask questions! Project owners WANT you to talk to them, ask questions, it means you are interested. They will appreciate it whether you end up backing or not.
Finally, for the prospective project owners, I highly recommend you back some projects before starting your own. Get the perspective your backers will be getting before they ever have it. It will help you with the challenges that come up during your own campaign knowing the shoe has been on the other foot.
So tell me what you think… What do you agree with? Disagree with? What did I miss?
Let us all learn together.
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A.J. Porfirio
United States
Thompsons Station
Tennessee
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If you have backed even a few Kickstarter board games, you have almost certainly found yourself asking this question at some point. In the age of instant gratification it can be quite painful to wait, and wait, and wait... to get a game you "paid" for months and months ago. Let's look at some factors that cause delays and what potential project owners can do to try to make sure they deliver the goods on time!
Full disclosure up front: I am currently in the middle of printing If I'm Going Down... and while not past the May estimated delivery date I communicated on the Kickstarter page, it is certainly a real possibility I may miss the deadline slightly. I certainly don't mean this to be seen as excuses, but I have learned things that I could have done differently and would like to share them. There are also things outside of a publisher's control that I could have estimated better. If there is a delay, I do not expect it will be a long one, however I fully own the miss and am not happy about it. Hopefully, there are others out there who can learn from my mistakes. One thing is for sure, the backers have been and will be communicated with to keep them up to date (more on this later).
So now that is out of the way, let's just start right at the beginning! If you are preparing for a Kickstarter you may be asking: How long will it take after the KS to get the game in people's hands? What do I tell prospective backers?
Kickstarter did not always require you to give an estimate for when rewards will be delivered... in fact it was just before I launched my project that it was changed to become a requirement. So you probably have noticed that now it is below each reward level on a project when the estimated delivery will be.
I found myself struggling with this, especially being a noob to publishing and not having done it before... I was pretty comfortable with my estimations for how long the remaining work and additional art would take, but not as much with the actual manufacturing process. So I decided I would pick a date far in the future so that I could make sure to hit it and not upset anyone! But wait... I had backed projects... I didn't like waiting seemingly forever to get the game... how would I feel if the project owner basically told me up front the game would take a LONG time to get? Would I still back it? For me I decided the answer was 'yes' (as painful as it could be). If I truly was interested in the game enough to support it, I would be willing to wait to get the product. But I am not totally naive, and through twitter conversations and other discussions with the community, I know there were plenty of folks who think differently.
So I was basically as conservative as I could be to give myself as much time as I could - without making it incredibly long to the point backing wasn't worth it. This is all my opinion... so I could be off. Maybe it WAS too long, maybe it wasn't. I went with May. 6 months from the project end... Quite a long time, but not that far off of the time frame I was hearing other projects were delivering. And it gave me time to finalize the game and get the remaining backer sponsored art completed.
Now a word from Captain Obvious! Choose the soonest delivery estimate you think you can meet without sacrificing the quality of the product!
Now each project is different and the post campaign work is different. So I can't sit here and tell you "always use X months" blah blah. You have to decide how much work there is... how long will the printing be... and package that up into an estimate for your backers.
I feel pretty confident saying that no matter how impeccable your planning and foresight may be, something will go wrong. It is to be expected. What matters is what you do about it.
One thing I did that wasn't necessarily a mistake that I would likely do different, is to have the game production ready before the campaign ended. This one is tough because I believe the project got several higher end backers thanks to the reward levels that let them choose their own art concept for a Zombie or Character. It also meant the game could not be finalized until that art was completed.
I did make a mistake though when it came to estimating the time frame to complete all of the art. Although I did base it on the estimate the artist gave me, it became pretty clear soon after the project that the timeline wouldn't be met. He actually came to me and admitted he wouldn't be able to meet the demands as he became very busy with his day job. I certainly could never fault anyone for that. I had to act quick and adapt. I brought on a second artist and it really turned out to be a blessing. Their styles mesh well, and it adds a little variety to the look of the game. In fact, looking back it probably would have been more prudent to work with more than one artist from the beginning.
Know your artists and their capabilities. And always be prepared to adjust on the fly.
Meanwhile, while the artists were doing their thing, I continued to finalize files, tweek the rulebook, and prepare everything for printing. I want everything to be perfect. I looked at everything again and again, over and over. Being a thematic game with story elements, including an entire Scenario Stories book. There was tons of text to read over and edit. Cards to check and double check. Just so much I took on while the artist did there work. Now this wasn't exactly a surprise, that was how I planned it. Since it was a Zombie game I wanted the project to run in October during Halloween season. It is hard to tell if that had the impact I hoped it would, but I sort of think it didn't. If I ever run another campaign, I will definitely wait to launch the campaign until I feel confident the files will be ready to go soon after the campaign.
Even with all of that the opportunity still existed to get the files over to the printer and be on time. Here is where being a noob really bit me... I got the files over to the printer, but they were not in the correct format. Well I should say they were not in a format the printer typically uses. ALL the files were saved as such, so I asked the printer if there was any way they could make it work without sacrificing quality. After all, I'd used some of the files to get some print on demand prototypes that looked good. Of course, the answer came back, nope. Not unless I was willing to risk quality. No way in hell I was risking quality to keep the timeline.
So I went back a reformatted all of the files. This took a few days and back went the files. I think I have read about other first-timers making this same mistake, so make sure you check with your printer (or potential printers) to find out what file types they can accept. Lesson learned.
Now that takes us to a place where we have passed the baton. We are at the mercy of the printer. It is out of our hands. Nothing can be done right? Well yes, sort of. But that doesn't mean you can't talk to others who have used the printer. Have they been happy with the turn around? the communication? Feel comfortable with the printer beforehand, not just for price, but for service.
Sure even after all of that there could be delays. If you are manufacturing overseas there is always the chance of the shipment getting delayed at customs. There are all kinds of things that can happen. No one can control for everything. So even if you do everything right there is always still a chance there will be a hiccup that causes a delay. It is, after all, only an estimate that is being given. Both backers and project owners would do well to be aware of this and accept it as a possibility. And most are.
What is not acceptable is not communicating with your backers! Don't forget that your backers are the reason you get to experience this in the first place. They are also behind you 100%. You should give them the respect they deserve and keep them in the loop on what is going on with the project. Yeah it can be scary going to backers with less than optimal news, but they will respect and appreciate you for it. Don't wait until the day the shipments are due to tell them it is going to be another 2 months when you knew about it long before. Or worse simply stop updating altogether since "hey I have their money." The minute you take that money that person becomes your customer. The customer service begins at that moment, and if we as board game publishers accept anything but excellent customer service, we are failing ourselves and them. Communication is KEY. Say it with me COMMUNICATION IS KEY!
We geeks discuss right here on this site the drawbacks and benefits of Kickstarter, but rarely, if ever will you ever see one of the true potential benefits of Kickstarter. The ability to connect! This is an opportunity that is missed by both project owners and backers on a daily basis. I'd argue connecting or at least making yourself available to do so is a requirement for a successful project owner. As a backer it is an option that is there if you want it, some take it, most don't (and that's ok).
And with that... let's learn from our mistakes and strive to be on time! But most of all let's communicate and keep the folks that made the dream a reality in the know. It is really the least we can do.
Until next time!
Copyright 2011 Van Ryder Games. This article may be used on your Blog, Podcast, or website with proper attribution to Van Ryder Games.
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A.J. Porfirio
United States
Thompsons Station
Tennessee
-
Ok here it is! As voted and demanded by the readers, I have modified and generalized my Kickstarter Budgeting and Cost Benefit Excel file for If I'm Going Down... so that now it is a model and template you can download and modify for use with your own project!
I appreciate any and all feedback and please let me know if you are not able to download a copy of the file.
With this model, you should be able to:
- Get an estimate of what the cash situation will look like at the end of the project
- Determine how much you are making at each funding level after accounting for costs
- Track how much of each reward type you will need to provide
- And a lot more!
This can be used before your project for planning purposes, during your project for determining where you are vs. where you need to be, and after the project one final time to see the real results! Now without further ado...
https://skydrive.live.com/redir.aspx?cid=ba7194f4032b16dc&re...
Disclaimer: I am not an accountant, nor is this file meant to be a tool for accounting. Everyone's business and tax situation is different and although there are likely tax implications for getting funding through Kickstarter, this model does not account for taxes. You should consult a CPA for your accounting needs.
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A.J. Porfirio
United States
Thompsons Station
Tennessee
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I know I owe the two of you that read this a post on creating a KS cost/benefit model, but that is a time commitment I haven't been able to make yet. So in the mean time, let's take a look at risk.
I should point out that I've spent much of my professional career as a Risk Manager, so you at least know I am not totally blowing smoke.
So with that, I'd like to make a point about risk...
One great thing about Kickstarter is that risk is pooled or spread out across a lot of different people. Both project owners and backers involved in a Kickstarter are taking some sort of risk.
I'll start with the backers, but I think it is worthwhile to look at the project owner as well, as I have seen comments on BGG or elsewhere that imply the project owner has no risk. This is just plain false and grossly inaccurate in my opinion.
As a backer you are taking some risks:
Risk 1: The game never gets delivered.
Risk 2: The game does not meet your expectations.
Risk 3: The game is available later at a reduced cost
The consequences of Risk 1 for the backer is they are out $X or whatever they put toward the project. Obviously the fact that the total pledge $'s are spread between 10's, 100's, or even 1,000's of backers limits the loss to any one person. The amount pledged scales your risk of course, which is why you should discriminate more if you are planning to pledge more. As far as I know, this hasn't happened for a board game yet and I hope it never does. But even if it does, I don't think it is going to put anyone into foreclosure on their house.
The consequences of Risk 2 are you have a poor experience with the game. This risk is one that can be managed by the backer. Namely, a backer should be able to get a very good idea of whether they will enjoy the product based on the information provided by the project owner. The less information consumed, regardless of availability, the greater the risk is you may not enjoy the product. Backers should understand their tolerance for risk so they can be comfortable pledging for a product.
Risk 3 is a bit of a misnomer. I see all the time folks complaining that they refuse to pay retail on Kickstarter because they know they'll be able to get the game later at a reduced price. This may or may not be true. Probably in a lot of cases it is. But this is not something that is native to Kickstarter. You very well may buy a game today and tomorrow I might find it on Amazon for $5 cheaper. The point is, it isn't the fact that the game costs "retail" that is stopping these guys from backing. It is simply that the perceived value is not worth the asking price for that person. This risk is minimal and it is unlikely the benefits of waiting will result in more than a few dollars saved. Plus you are likely foregoing fringe benefits of backing a project.
There are definitely risks taken by backers of Kickstarter projects but they are very tolerable for all but the most risk averse folks.
Now let's talk about project owners. Contrary to what seems to be popular belief, project owners are taking a far greater risk than backers.
If you've read any of the dissenting posts about KS on BGG or otherwise, you have surely seem a comment akin to something like this:
"Kickstarter allows designers to bypass the traditional gate keepers (publishers) and produce a game without any risk."
The first part of the statement is absolutely true. The second part is probably false in almost every case, most especially in the projects good enough to get funded. Let's look at the project owner's risk.
Risk 1: Opportunity Cost
Risk 2: Financial Risk
Risk 3: Risking Reputation
What do I mean by Opportunity Cost? If you've ever designed a game or even attempted it, you know how time intensive it can be. If you were planning to take your project to Kickstarter and I told you that I could see the future and your project was not going to get funded would you consider to spend time on the game? This is time you could be spending on other more lucrative things like time with your family or maybe on another game design. Those opportunities are foregone in order to make the game and bring it to Kickstarter. The catch is there is not fortune teller that can tell you if your project will succeed or fail. So you as a a project owner, are risking your time and effort on the project.
Risk 2 is financial risk. It kills me when I hear or see comments about there being no financial risk for project owners. It is very likely that long before a project has funded or is even posted on KS that a lot of money has been spent in preparation. I can tell you for a fact that I spent well over $1,000 on art for If I'm Going Down... before I even thought I might be able to get funded on Kickstarter. This is a risk I took because I believe in my game. My friend Grant Rodiek who recently funded his Farmageddon game on Kickstarter, has been very open about the fact that he spent a lot on the artwork well before Kickstarter was even a consideration.
You've heard me talk about BGG ads. I can promise you there are no refunds for ads if your project doesn't get funded. This is an expense that is a risk. Sending prototypes to reviewers. Not free.
How much do you value your time? $10 an hour? $20? $50? I can promise you the designers and publishers of the slick games that get funded on KS are spending hundreds (even thousands, I know I have - and my wife will unhappily attest to that) of hours designing and producing the game and project. So you do the math. Let's forget this silly notion that project owners do not have any financial risk. In fact, I think there is a strong argument that the financial risk is far less by going the route of pitching to publishers.
Risk 3 is the most important in my opinion and should be the scariest for small timers and first time publishers designers. What is the saying? "You only get one shot at making a good first impression" or something to that effect. By the nature of KS, you are putting yourself under the spotlight. If the game gets produced and does not make the grade, people will remember the next time you create a game and try to push it or kickstart it. If you go to a restaurant and the food tastes like crap, do you suggest the restaurant for your next time out so you can try a different menu item? No, you write off the whole restaurant as crap. This is the same effect project owners that are successful at funding, but unsuccessful at producing a quality product will experience if they don't deliver. Damage to reputation is also damaging financially as it will directly affect your ability to successfully sell product in the future.
The beautiful thing about all this is that the market weighs all of these factors and our collective actions as backers and project owners determine what is tolerable, what works, and what doesn't. Where there is risk there is reward, and that is certainly the case with Kickstarter.
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A.J. Porfirio
United States
Thompsons Station
Tennessee
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Welcome back friends! Let's talk about project length. This discussion will be a little more opinion and less analysis than the previous entries, but before I get to my opinion I will do my best to first present the options objectively.
Back in June, Kickstarter shortened the maximum project length from 90 to 60 days. They blogged their reasoning and included some nice charts to help show the justification of the decision. Read about it here: http://www.kickstarter.com/blog/shortening-the-maximum-proje...
Now anyone who has studied or researched Kickstarter for even a short time knows that according to Kickstarter 30 days is the best length, You may even see comments like, "There are more successful 30 day projects than any other project length" and I have seen folks blindly follow this recommendation. But why don't we put it under the microscope a bit, and think about it specific to Board Game projects?
First I'll give you a quick advantages/disadvantages look at shorter vs. longer projects. Obviously there may be some not mentioned here, but it will give us a good reference point for the rest of the discussion.
Now obviously as you move toward either extreme the effects are intensified. So at this point knowing what Kickstarter says and what you see in the model 30 days looks pretty good right? Well lets not rush to judgement just yet...
If we polled 100 random backers to projects, how many do you think would say they prefer to back shorter projects? 80%? 90%? 99%?
I think it would be very high.
Now how do you think the same 100 backers would respond if we asked if they would have changed there decision to back a project if it was 30 days longer? I suspect the majority would have still backed the project.
The point I am trying to make is that from an individual's perspective the length of the project probably has very little to do with the ultimate decision to back a project. And in turn, the magnitude of the decision to go longer or shorter is down the list of what are the most critical factors to a successful project. I don't mean to suggest that it is not an important decision, only that it is not THE most important decision.
Besides, unless as a backer you are a religious Kickstarter checker (check everyday) you probably don't even know how long the project was to begin with, only what it was when you ran across it.
Ok so let me just quit beating around the bush and tell you where my head is at... I think there is very strong evidence to suggest that board game Kickstarter projects, generally speaking, should be longer than 30 days.
Would you not agree that the amount of the funding goal would have a direct impact on how long the project should be? If you are asking for more money you will likely need more time to get the pledges right?
Well look at this chart from Kickstarters blog:
Now if you have seen as many board game projects on Kickstarter as I have, you probably have noticed that most of them have a funding goal of $5,000 or more. So we need to be careful about general numbers that Kickstarter puts out there across ALL categories. So yes maybe most of the successful projects are 30 days long. But it is also true that most of the successful projects are under $5,000. Does that fit what we know about board game projects? I hope you are shaking your head no. I suspect the average board game project is 40 days long.
Keep in mind we are looking at this from a project owner's perspective, not from a backer's perspective. Take any emotion you have out of the equation and think about it objectively.
So this brings me to the first variable you should look at when determining your projects length: Your Funding Goal
Ok so then I guess we should just always choose 60 days then? No, not necessarily. If you have not noticed in the previous posts, there is an issue that gets mentioned (and will continue to get mentioned) in practically every one - building momentum BEFORE the project starts. If you do not think you have 10% to 15% in pledges in the project's first 48 hours you are NOT ready to launch your project!
So the second variable you should look at when determining your projects length: Your expected momentum going into the project
Having a longer project gives you a little bit of a cushion to recoup from a slow start if it unexpectedly happens. Either way you will be constantly promoting and doing things to promote the project. As an example let's look at something I did with If I'm Going Down.... I chose 35 days as my project term. Yes, I bought into the 30 day recommendation not knowing what I know now. There was a strategy behind choosing 35 instead of 30 though. I wanted to see what happened in the first 5 days and still be able to take advantage of BGG ads if needed depending on what happened. Again that was a decision I did not have the information I have now, but you can certainly make the argument that you can save the money for ads if the project takes off.
The extra days also can give potential backers that wouldn't have seen the project a chance to see and back it. If your funding goal comes down to the wire you'll be much happier you added the extra days than you would if you didn't have them.
Give yourself time to go on podcasts, complete interviews, get reviews from 3rd parties, etc.
So the third variable you should look at when determining your projects length: Your marketing plan for the project
The last thing I want to make sure you are thinking about when deciding on the project length is how much work it is! You have to be on top of you game constantly throughout the project. If you aren't moving forward you are moving backward! It is both mentally and physically exhausting. You will lose sleep and you will be stressed. Ask yourself candidly how long you are willing to do it. If I could go back I would have done 40 days, but 60 would have just been too much for me having a family in need of my attention. Look at your situation and go with what you think you can do.
So the fourth thing to look at is your workload tolerance
In Summary
I believe that board game projects in general should be longer than 30 days for the best chance at success and the greatest funding %.
The 4 most important variables that I think should go into the decision are:
1. Your Funding Goal ($)
2. Your expected momentum going into the project
3. Your marketing plan for the project
4. Your workload tolerance
I believe that if you look at your project from this perspective you will make an optimal decision for your project's length increasing your chances for success!
Thanks for checking out this blog! And look out for the next one where we'll look at building a project cost/benefit model in Excel!
Kickstarter chart pulled from the Kickstarter blog entry found here: http://www.kickstarter.com/blog/10000-successful-projects
Copyright 2011 Van Ryder Games. May be used on your Blog, Podcast, website, etc. with proper attribution to Van Ryder Games.
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A.J. Porfirio
United States
Thompsons Station
Tennessee
-
In the month leading up to the launch of my project on Kickstarter, one of the things that I most wrestled with was should I purchase banner ads on the Boardgamegeek.com website. BGG is the most highly trafficked board game website and in my research I often noticed ads for many of the games on Kickstarter. You can't really visit the site these days without seeing at least one ad for a Kickstarter project. But are they worth it?
I'll give you my opinion later, but I first want to show you some analytics and how you can make an educated decision rather than wildly guessing whether they are right for your project or not.
First let's look at how banner ads generally work:
Take a look at the pyramid. This is a basic model of how banner ads work. Typically, you pay for a set number of impressions over a certain period of time. The goal in this case is obviously to drive traffic to your project page and ultimately get a pledge from the visitor who saw your ad.
This process is illustrated in the pyramid starting at the bottom. First an impression is made when your ad appears to someone browsing the BGG site. Whether or not they notice or pay attention to the ad is irrelevant, it still counts as an impression.
Only a few of the people who see your ad will actually click thru and go to your project page. This number divided by the total impressions is called the click thru rate.
And finally, of those that click thru, only a few will actually be converted and pledge toward your project. Obviously the more the better as this is the ultimate goal of purchasing ads. This number divided by the number of click thrus is the conversion rate.
When you purchase ads from BGG you purchase them for a number of impressions. Sometimes people break the cost down to cost per thousand impressions. As with most things the per unit cost goes down when you purchase more volume. Some figures will not be disclosed in order to protect the interests of both Van Ryder Games and BoardGameGeek.com
For the current rates and to purchase ads email Chad from BGG at: chad@boardgamegeek.com
Weighing all the factors...
Now before we go further and look at some data, let's look at a project scenario and some factors you should think about when determining if you should buy ads on BGG. These are not in any particular order, nor are they all of the questions you should be asking yourself.
1. How long will your project be? If it is a very short project BGG ads may not have time to be impactful. If it is very long you will need to think about when is the best time for the ads to run (i.e. beginning, middle, or end of the project)
2. What is the project's funding goal in $? And what is the ratio of the cost of ads to the funding goal? If the ad costs are 15% or more of the funding goal you shoud probably just be puttin the money toward the project. Example: Project goal is $2,000 and BGG ads are going to cost you $600, it probably doesn't make much sense to purchase ads.
3. Are there hidden costs? And if so have you accounted for them? Such as... Will you pay to have banners designed? If designing yourself are you accounting for the time it will take and planning accordingly.
4. Can you afford it? If you are taking a second mortgage or selling your kidney purchase BGG ads you might want to rethink it. (exaggerating for affect here)
5. Are you prepared to lose it all? Remember, if your project does not fund you get nothing. And BGG is under no obligation and should hold no liability as to the success or failure of your project whether you purchase ads or not. You won't be getting a refund.
Luckily we can look at some things to make an informed decision! Especially with regards to #5... as no one wants to lose their money.
How many incremental pledges are needed?
Ok. So how do we decide if the ads are worth it? Your probably thinking, "hey if I get at least my money back in pledges than it is worth it!"
WRONG!
The ads need to earn you quite a bit more in pledges than what you spend on them to be worth it. Here is why...
Hopefully you have already read, Kickstarter Metrics you aren't thinking about... but should be! (Part 1) because we will use Average Pledge amount in this discussion.
The assumptions we are using are as follows:
The goal for the funding achieved through Kickstarter is to pay for a print run of the game.
Amount we plan to spend on BGG ads: $600
Projected Average Pledge amount: $40
Kickstarter and Amazon fees of 10%: $4
Projected Non-Manufacturing expenses per pledge: $8
So using the original argument, to be worth it the ads would need to generate $600 in the hypothetical situation above. So that would be 15 incremental pledges (15 x 40 = 600).
Seems like that is doable right?
But wait... if we factor in other things like the Kickstarter fees and even the extraneous costs that aren't going toward printing our game, like shipping and non-game rewards, we actually are only getting $28 per pledge and would need 22 incremental pledges (22 x 28 = 616) to make the ads worth it.
The lesson? Always make sure you are accounting for all of the costs! If we'd paid someone to design the ads we'd have to factor in and take out even more from the $40 base!
Hitting the target
Ok, so how do we know if we can hit our target number of pledges? Well, you never know for sure... but we are going to look at some things that will give us a damn good idea of what will happen using what we know from what happened with If I'm Going Down.... Remember the pyramid at the beginning?
Ok now let's take a look at how the If I'm Going Down... ad campaign did by looking at the click thru and conversion rates. After starting at a 0.62% click through rate (which according to Chad is over 2x the BGG average) the final click thru rate ended up being 0.42%
A drop should be expected as the longer the ads run, the more likely visitors have already seen them and therefore are less likely to click them whether the did previously or not. Keep in mind that the click thru rate is largely dependent on the quality of your ads and whether or not they are enticing enough to make folks want to click them. Below are some of the ads we put on BGG:
Now let it be known that I am not a graphic designer by any means, but I did have a simple strategy that I thought would yield results.
1. Show off what makes the game visually appealing - the Zombies!
2. Use very few words. Making it so if you want to know more you have to click the ad.
3. Identify it as a Kickstarter but don't slam people in the face with the Kickstarter Logo or a plea. (That is what the project page is for)
Ok they clicked the ad and are on your Kickstarter page. Now you have to convert them. This is a job in itself and a great video, page presentation, reward structure, and information like rules and reviews are needed to give prospective backers the information they need to make an informed decision. There are certainly others who have done it better, but you can check out the "If I'm Going Down..." Kickstarter project page here to see how we did it: http://kck.st/pzGjQg
The average conversion rate for small businesses is 1.5% according to this article: http://www.searchmarketingstandard.com/what-is-the-average-c...
IIGD came in at 1.2% according to the number of backers that came from BGG as we are now able to see in the new Kickstarter project dashboard. Now this number may vary from the actual as people who saw the project by clicking an ad but then came back later through another channel wouldn't be counted in that stat. On the flipside, some of the number may be people who came from BGG but not from clicking an ad but rather through a link in a forum post or something. So the raw number from KS is probably fairly accurate if we consider those factors a wash.
Ok so now we know the variables! We can do the math and get to our projection! Based on what I know from my project and what I know from researching click thru and conversion rates, I recommend using base assumptions of 0.30% Click Thru rate and 1.25% conversion rate.
You can adjust those figures based on your own assumptions, but I think using them as is will give you a nice conservative estimate of what to expect.
Ok so using those figures if we need 22 incremental pledges, the minimum number of impressions we need for our $600 is:
22/0.0125 = 1,760 (click thrus)
1,760/0.003 = 586,666 (impressions)
So if our $600 is going to buy us more than 586,000 impressions we can feel pretty good that purchasing the ads will be worth it!
Accounting for risk and your risk tolerance
But... there is just one more thing to consider... RISK! Even if this formula does not indicate you should buy the ads it may still be worth the risk. And vice versa, even if it says you should it might not be worth the risk.We can't just make decisions in a vacuum and as useful as the data is and the formula to project if ads are worth buying, we must factor in risk and our tolerance for it.
We can do this by taking a hard look at our project, funding goal, and what we think the likelihood of different scenarios happening are. The most important factor is what the chances are that the project will fund. I know we are all confident our project will fund, but you need to take a realistic approach when doing this!
So look at your project, all the work you have done, the marketing prep, etc. and make an educated guess at what you think the chances of success are that your project would be funded. In our example let's say we are asking for $6,000 and we have put in the work an we think our project has an 80% chance to be funded with the purchase of BGG ads.
Let's say our $600 buys us 700,000 impressions. So we expect the ads to yield 26 pledges using the preceding formula. The pledges total $1,040. After we factor out fees and non-mfg costs we expect it to yield $728 toward printing. Ok! Nice! Plus we believe our estimate is conservative so it will likely be more.
But wait, we won't get our funding 20% of the time so we have to factor that in... So using a situational formula factoring in this risk we see that:
80% of the time our $600 yields $728 and 20% of the time it yields 0.
So the weighted average expected return is:
($728 * .80) + ($0 * .20) = $582
Now this value below $600 so a finance major might tell you the investment is not worth it. But this assumes our factors are 100% accurate. You could easily yield much higher or your success % could be much higher. You must determine if your risk tolerance is greater than the chance the investment will not be worth it or you could lose it all.
Look even if you don't fully understand all this math, or the reasoning behind it, if you take the time to look at it you are already winning by taking a closer look at your project and challenging your assumptions.
Final Summary and my opinion:
By looking closely at your project and the factors involved, you can make a very educated guess as to whether or not you should purchase BGG ads for your Kickstarter project.
Consider both the data and external factors and know that you will make the decision that is best for you!
For me, I can say post-project that the BGG ads were definitely worth it. Pledges from the ads amounted to over $1,600 and I spent less than 1/3 of that. I think it was definitely a good investment.
I chose not to pay myself back from the project funds but to instead leave the initial investment to go toward producing the game. This was just a personal decision as the funding needs every bit of it to get the games printed.
Thanks for voting on the topics everyone! There was a 3 way tie so the next 2 installments will be: Modeling a Cost Benefit in Excel and How Long should a project be?
To see the original version of the article using simple booklet go here: http://midd.me/SQRf
DISCLAIMER: The figures in the example scenario for BGG Ad cost do not reflect the going rates and you should contact Chad@boardgamegeek.com to get the current rates.
Using the formulas and/or advice in this article are by no means guaranteed to make your project a success. Results of course will vary so please do not come to me saying you did everything mentioned and the project still did not fund.
Copyright 2011 Van Ryder Games. This article may be used on your Blog, Podcast, or website with proper attribution to Van Ryder Games.
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A.J. Porfirio
United States
Thompsons Station
Tennessee
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Ok I am hoping I picked up a few subscribers after "Kickstarter Metrics you aren't thinking about... but should be!" parts 1 and 2.
I was going to just chug right along, but then I realized I have a LOT of topics to explore and I want to discuss what can help prospective project owners the most. So please take a minute and vote on the topics that are most important to you! I will make sure I put the most desired at the top of the list. (Feel free to mention anything you don't see on the list!
Which of the following would you like to see next? (pick as many as you like)
All topics are relating to Boardgames projects on Kickstarter
Those are some real good ones IMHO, but if you have an idea of your own let's hear it and I'll weigh in on if it is something I can share good info on. So... what'll it be?
Thanks!
A.J.
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