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Strategic Musings on and Statistical Analysis of Urban Sprawl

Jesse Dean
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Urban Sprawls three currencies: action points, money, and building permits. The planning deck is the major source of two of these currencies, with each of the deck’s 36 different building permit cards displaying both a money payout symbol and a number of permits on it. Money is important for determining where you can build, but without the right number of permits, you won’t be able to build at all, which is usually a lot more inconvenient then not being able to build in an optimal space. Permit cards can also be transformed into money, if you have one at the beginning of the round, though the reverse is not true. Only action points (Aps) can be used to acquire permits. The other item that action points are used to acquire is contract cards. It is very easy in Urban Sprawl to get distracted by the flashy power of the contract cards but I think this is largely a mistake. Building permits are just as important as contract cards, if not more so, and it makes sense to be careful in both when you acquire them and how you spend them.



So what makes permits so valuable? It is mostly a matter of the scarcity of the higher value permits, and the way the requirements for the bigger ones balloon as the game continues. As you can see from the table above, the combined quantities of size 3 and size 4 permit cards are equal to that of either of the size 1 and 2 quantities. When you add in the Urban Renewal cards, these larger cards become rather scarce, and once you start reaching the City and Metropolis phases (when average permit size goes from 1.56 to 2.64 to 2.83), very important. Playing in a fast and loose way, where you try to use available building permits to build an available contract every turn may require less thought but it will also create even more of the sort of chaos I talked about in my Initial Impressions post, as you become truly reliant on what cards are coming out in order to be able to do anything.



In addition to being restricted by permit size, contract cards can only use permit cards that specifically allow them. This is rarely a problem for the smaller contracts, as they are so plentiful that you can just reach over and grab whichever card takes your fancy. Once you get into the larger permits, however, things become a bit more difficult. All of the level 3 and 4 permit cards can be used with commercial buildings. This makes sense, because there are far more commercial buildings than any other type. All but one of the level 3 and 4 permit cards also allow industrial buildings. This also makes sense because, on average, industrial buildings require more permits than the others. Residential and civic are less permit-intensive and thus have less of a requirement for large contracts. Where this becomes problematic, however, is in getting out those rare, large residential and civic buildings. It might even be worthwhile to hang on to contracts that allow them because merely by holding them you are reducing the capability of other players to build these larger buildings. With this restriction they are less likely to grab them for themselves, meaning you are more likely to get these big, valuable, contracts for a reduced cost. Also, once the Metropolis era arrives with its powerful late-game contracts, being able to build them before anyone else can be a powerful.



In a particular game it is extremely likely that you won’t see more than 75% of the town and city decks, and you will never see more than 50% of the metropolis deck. As a result of this you can never expect to see a particular card. However, the four zones each have a fairly tight mechanical focus making it so that you have a good idea of the sort of ability you will be taking advantage of when you get a building permit. Civic contracts tend to focus on gaining victory points and tend to supply Education, Public Service, and Tourism vocations. Commercial contracts tend to focus on producing and claiming other people’s money, and tend to supply Finance, Media, Tourism, and Transportation vocations. Industrial contracts tend to focus on manipulation of planning cards, and tend to supply Energy, Factory, and Transportation vocations. Residential contracts tend to focus on manipulation of wealth and victory point markers and control of buildings and tend to not deal with vocation markers. With this in mind some planning and strategy is possible, even if it is limited somewhat by when and how the contracts come out.

The eight vocations are not evenly distributed across the contract cards. Some vocations, such as Public Service, appear quite frequently across the contract cards while others, such as Media and Finance, are much, much rarer. In many ways taking a particular vocation-based contract is an exercise in risk vs. reward. Finance has some pretty amazing pay-out opportunities, but with only 4 appearances across the three decks, the likelihood of seeing it again is much lower than the more modestly rewarding Public Service, which has 12 appearances. “Dead” vocation markers are not a total loss, however, as they help you get Mayor, one of the six political offices.


*The Media vocation gets constant income from event cards in the City and Metropolis decks.


With the exception of Mayor and Contractor, ownership of a political office is about controlling the most valuable building of a particular type, with ties going to those who have the majority of buildings of that type, with further ties resolved by other political offices. The special abilities provided by these offices are powerful, and thus worth fighting for. The Union Boss, determined by the most valuable Industrial building, has the flashiest power thanks to its ability to provide 2 extra APs every round, but this typically only provides the ability to select more expensive cards then they normally would instead of getting extra cards. The District Attorney, determined by the most powerful Civic building, allows you to get more victory points from zone adjacency, which can provide a considerable bonus if it is used frequently and carefully. The Treasurer, determined by the most powerful Commercial building, allows forces other players to pay you $2 each at the beginning of your turn. This is helpful because of the fact that it provides you with a continual source of income regardless of which contract cards come out. The last one, and probably my favorite, is the Police Chief, who ensures that you get both victory points and money when getting a vocation pay-out, rather than just one. This one is obviously only useful if you are grabbing lots of vocations, but I admit I am a fan of vocations, so this does not bother me much. It also dovetails nicely into getting the Mayor, as vocation tile quantity during an election determines who gets this office. Because of the relative rarity of contracts of certain zones, it seems that it will be easier to hold on to the political offices associated with those zones. However, an errant urban renewal or the shifting dynamics of the wealth and prestige markers will prevent these offices from being too static. It will take some concerted effort to hold on to a particular office throughout the game, and if someone is willing to go through all of that to hold on to an office, they probably should get to keep it.

In addition to determining what special ability you receive, political offices also give you special bonuses via events. In the City deck there are eight events, two for each of the main political offices besides Mayor that provide some sort of extra special benefit for that political office. Four of these events cause a change in the distribution of money and/or VPs between players while the other four are slightly flashier and fun. All of the Metropolis-era events are focused on the Mayor, mostly giving the Mayor special bonuses or allowing him or her to direct the negative effects of a bad event in a limited way. This means that, while the Mayor is useful earlier in the game, it is most important to control the office during the Metropolis era as that is when the office’s biggest bonuses kick in. The others are important throughout the game, as they have good events during the City era, but also can provide big victory point bonuses at the end of the game.

Digging into the statistical guts of Urban Sprawl has actually improved my opinion of the game. I had previously been cautiously positive about it, but now that I understand it better I can move from there to fully positive. I am not quite sure where it is going to eventually settle into my rankings, but I plan to play it extensively in the near future to find out.
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Subscribe sub options Wed Oct 26, 2011 4:43 pm
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Jesse Dean
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As an aside it was a lot of fun building a spreadsheet and diving into the statistical guts of this game. It will definitely be helpful for when I write my eventual review of the game (early next week probably), and for continuing to develop and refine my perception on what is a correct or incorrect move in the game.
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  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 4:48 pm
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Tim Seitz
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Very thoughtful analysis. I would have more to comment on if I had my !@#$ing copy!
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  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 4:50 pm
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Jesse Dean
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So do you think you are going to like this one?
 
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  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 4:52 pm
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Ryan Metzler
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Great statistical analysis Jesse! Thanks for the time and effort!
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  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 4:54 pm
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Darrell Hanning
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out4blood wrote:
Very thoughtful analysis. I would have more to comment on if I had my !@#$ing copy!


My !@#$ing sentiments, exactly.
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  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 5:00 pm
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Tim Seitz
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doubtofbuddha wrote:
So do you think you are going to like this one?

Pretty sure. I will admit, though, that I have not spent any time investigating it since I already bought it a long time ago.

I possibly have an unusual approach to pre-game analysis:

1. Games I pre-ordered or already plan to buy => Ignore completely until they show up
2. Games I do not plan to buy => Ignore completely (unless persuaded I am wrong)
3. Games I am lukewarm toward/on the fence about => Make or borrow copies to play incessantly until I come to some conclusion

As you can see, this potentially skews me toward playing games that are ultimately mediocre, but I have been lucky so far.

The Manhattan Project has been a happy violation of rule #1.

Vanuatu and Upon a Salty Ocean fall into #3, but I don't have event/tile distributions to playtest and no one else around here has a copy, as of yet.
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  • Edited Wed Oct 26, 2011 5:09 pm
  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 5:08 pm
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Curt Carpenter
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out4blood wrote:
1. Games I pre-ordered or already plan to buy => Ignore completely until they show up
2. Games I do not plan to buy => Ignore completely (unless persuaded I am wrong)

I am exactly the same. Having pre-orderd US over a year ago, I completely ignored the rules until I had the game in hand. I finally played last night. Will try to write up my thoughts today.

out4blood wrote:
3. Games I am lukewarm toward/on the fence about => Make or borrow copies to play incessantly until I come to some conclusion

I am way too lazy for that. I rely on geek buddies ratings primarily, and the general BGG populace secondarily.
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  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 6:05 pm
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Tim Seitz
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curtc wrote:
out4blood wrote:
3. Games I am lukewarm toward/on the fence about => Make or borrow copies to play incessantly until I come to some conclusion

I am way too lazy for that.

I used to be. I find it enjoyable now. One of my pet peeves is crappy graphic design. I am no artist, but when I craft a game, I can add in the missing graphic elements, that I think should have been included in the first place, such as player-colored components...



...or key information placed on the board to reduce translating costs:



Crafting a playable copy doesn't take that much time. I pop stuff into Powerpoint and print it out on paper. I'm not doing stuff on a permanent basis; I've even gone so far as to just draw stuff in pen and use crayons to denote color. (My original 'gric paste ups were done in B&W and using orange and yellow highlighters).

Quote:
I rely on geek buddies ratings primarily

I do as well, but some of them can be quite wacky. I have had to pare down my geekbuddy list after getting burned on some games. Jesse is a great geekbuddy because while he is quite prone to false negatives (in terms of my tastes), he very rarely gives false positives.

Quote:
and the general BGG populace secondarily

What's your method for interpreting the data? I haven't found a way to make this useful other than overall ranking. And good games don't acquire high rankings until they have been out awhile.

Comments are good, but weeding through all the comments is quite tedious sometimes. If I am at all interested, I'd rather just play it myself
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  • Edited Wed Oct 26, 2011 6:55 pm
  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 6:54 pm
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Jesse Dean
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I honestly would prefer to give out false negatives then false positives. I think it is better for everyone involved (except maybe the publisher).
 
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  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 7:03 pm
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Chadwik
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Nice analysis, Jesse. All of my games have tons of mathematical underpinnings, usually encased in an Excel spreadsheet or two.

One thing to note:
Quote:
Where this becomes problematic, however, is in getting out those rare, large residential and civic buildings. It might even be worthwhile to hang on to contracts that allow them because merely by holding them you are reducing the capability of other players to build these larger buildings.

This can easily be mitigated by your opponents since a player can always spend multiple smaller-sized permits to build one of the larger buildings. This is one of the reasons there are so many more of the 1- and 2-sized permit cards.
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  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 7:23 pm
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Jesse Dean
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Indeed. I should have been more clear on that. Holding on to the big building permits does make it more difficult for them to meet the minimum threshold more difficult though, as it usually takes a lot more actions to grab two specific permits then it does for one.

So when should we expect another big euro from you? I have to admit between Dominant Species and Urban Sprawl I am hooked!
 
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  • Edited Wed Oct 26, 2011 7:32 pm
  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 7:31 pm
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Chadwik
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When? I don't know.

What? I can't yet say.

Will? Yes.
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  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 7:34 pm
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Curt Carpenter
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out4blood wrote:



Wow! You're on the bleeding edge! I'd love to play those games. Come join our group!

out4blood wrote:
Crafting a playable copy doesn't take that much time.

Maybe I should try it sometime. You've inspired me.

out4blood wrote:
curtc wrote:
and the general BGG populace secondarily

What's your method for interpreting the data?

1) Look at the comments of the lower half of the game's ratings. Look for real reasons people didn't like it. Ignore the inevitable rants and anti-shills. More often than not, if I don't like a game, it's because there's something I dislike rather than simply being a void of anything I like. Almost every game has something like, but misses are the result of botching something. But for games I end up liking, the dislikes in the bottom half are usually non-issues to me, e.g. "too much AP", "boring Euro-fest", etc.
2) Look at review comments. It's often hard for me to tease out the key nuggets of reviews. But plenty of other folks are willing to do that, especially folks who have already played. It never ceases to amaze me that it seems most attention to reviews is actually paid by people who already have played the game.
3) If I see particularly vocal people for or against a game, check their ratings. For this case usually I care more about their 8-10s than their low ranked games (everyone has random games that fall flat). If the person's favorite games contain a fair amount of stuff I really don't like, then ignore, otherwise consider further. (And if I end up trying the game and agreeing, then probably add as a geek buddy).
4) For those vocal folks, consider the total number of games they've not just rated, but added comments to. See if their comments make sense, especially for games I know.
5) Trust my instincts. I avoided Twilight Struggle for a long time. I got 1960 when it came out. I didn't like it. Felt like boring back and forth. Finally caved and bought TS due to ratings. Hated my first play. Hated reading the rules and errata/faq even more. Sold it. Same for Claustrophobia.

But ultimately there's a fair amount of voodoo. I still have misfires.

out4blood wrote:
Comments are good, but weeding through all the comments is quite tedious sometimes. If I am at all interested, I'd rather just play it myself

Yeah, me too. But playing is not an option without someone either buying or making! I might try the making thing, but generally I find reading rules tedious enough that I won't even do that before making a purchase, even when rules are available. I can't motivate myself to read unless I can play. So I just buy. What I really wish is that I had other folks in the group who were willing to spread out the buying of new games (and take chances) so that I don't have to buy most of them. shake
 
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  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 7:43 pm
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Tim Seitz
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curtc wrote:
out4blood wrote:



Wow! You're on the bleeding edge! I'd love to play those games. Come join our group!

I may do that. I grew up in the NW, and my parents live in Kirkland. We were just there a year ago. In fact, I took my kids on a bike ride down the slough to Redmond!
 
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  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 8:12 pm
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Ben
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out4blood wrote:
Vanuatu and Upon a Salty Ocean fall into #3, but I don't have event/tile distributions to playtest and no one else around here has a copy, as of yet.

Vanuatu is on its way as we speak.
 
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  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 8:14 pm
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Tim Seitz
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chally wrote:
out4blood wrote:
Vanuatu and Upon a Salty Ocean fall into #3, but I don't have event/tile distributions to playtest and no one else around here has a copy, as of yet.

Vanuatu is on its way as we speak.

Bring to Euroquest if you are planning to attend!
 
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  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 8:16 pm
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Curt Carpenter
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out4blood wrote:
I grew up in the NW, and my parents live in Kirkland. We were just there a year ago. In fact, I took my kids on a bike ride down the slough to Redmond!

I lived in Kirkland 6 years. I am now in my second house in Redmond (after moving out of the country and back). Yeah, definitely ping me if you want to join a game night when you're here. Group info here.

Sorry Jesse for completely derailing the Urban Sprawl Love Fest. laugh
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  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 8:19 pm
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Jesse Dean
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You can make it up to me by thumbing my blog entry.
 
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  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 8:26 pm
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Curt Carpenter
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Done.
 
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  • Posted Wed Oct 26, 2011 9:13 pm
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