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Board Game:
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David Murray
England
Plymouth
Devon
I'm the mod, so I know EVERYTHING >:)
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Oct 19, 2010
le havre prob old excel.xls (35 KB) (Log in or Register to download.)
What's the probability of building 13 being on the 2nd Row?

This table tells you quickly,accurately and precisely what the probability of a building being on any particular row is after setup.

Row 1 is the first visible row that you can buy/build from and Row 10 is the final row you can buy/build from.

Assumes the buildings sorted as per the rules: Randomly allocated into 3 piles, then each pile sorted numerically.
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M Loebach
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Crysler
ON
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... and how are your chi squared ratios doing today?

goo

P.S. NICE WORK -- truly a hardcore statistician!
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  • Posted Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:03 pm
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David Murray
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Plymouth
Devon
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Once I worked out the generic formulas it wasn't that bad
I was wondering how useful these stats really are know, however some key buildings like the Wharf and Coilery it can make a bug difference what row they are on.
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  • Posted Wed Oct 20, 2010 7:12 pm
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Jose San Miguel
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Valencia
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Ok, that's very cool and completely above my level. Now, what's wrong with this reasoning:

Card #2 is the top card of its stack unless it's in the same stack than card #1. As far as I can say, card #2 has only 1/3 probability of being in the same stack than card #1. Then why aren't card #2 chances exactly 2/3 for the first row and 1/3 for the second?
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  • Posted Mon Oct 25, 2010 6:24 pm
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David Murray
England
Plymouth
Devon
I'm the mod, so I know EVERYTHING >:)
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Jose-san wrote:
Ok, that's very cool and completely above my level. Now, what's wrong with this reasoning:

Card #2 is the top card of its stack unless it's in the same stack than card #1. As far as I can say, card #2 has only 1/3 probability of being in the same stack than card #1. Then why aren't card #2 chances exactly 2/3 for the first row and 1/3 for the second?


You made the mistake I made at first, assuming each stack has a 1/3 probability. This is incorrect due to the fact each stack has to have exactly 10 cards.

Imaginge an empty 3x10 grid. I have placed one card, the #1 in the top left. There are 9 Spaces below it and 20 other spaces. I now randomly place #2, it has a 9/29 chance of being in the same stack and 20/29 chance of being in a different stack.

Note the probablities are close to 1/3 and 2/3. Effectively, because #1 has already been allocated, this effects the probabilities for #2.
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  • Posted Mon Oct 25, 2010 11:50 pm
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Jose San Miguel
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Thanks! That's clear now. Very good work.
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  • Posted Tue Oct 26, 2010 8:29 am
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