Game: Blue Moon

Thread: Re: Blue Moon AI released

Dearlove — 2008-07-03T07:52:39+00:00

Demo_Boy wrote:
AFAIK the only cheating that could be there is possibly the AI knows the cards that it will get in hand if it plays cards that cause it to draw cards into hand from a random source.

This is a bug that Keldon has noted. (I think I can see how it could easily occur.) I presume the next version will be free of it. Its main effect would be to stop the AI getting cards it doesn't want, rather than getting the cards it does want (since without the information the usual behaviour would be to draw, but instead it might sometimes not draw). Getting cards it does want would be a secondary effect, playing the card later. But assuming the deck isn't reshuffled, it's not going to get the cards it wants any faster waiting, it'll just be the same cards, slower. Where that analysis doesn't apply is getting cards from discard, but I don't think that's the effect complained of.

Image

Brian Schubert — 2008-07-03T06:26:56+00:00

Blue Moon - Box Display

Thread: Re: Blue Moon AI released

Demo_Boy — 2008-07-03T03:23:30+00:00

riddle13 wrote:
i could not "prove" that this program cheats unless i could see the cards it's given throughout the game.

If you are willing to select Game--> Debug, then check the box: Disclose opponent hand, you can see the cards the AI gets in every hand of the game.

It's a bit of leg work to do the disclose that frequently, but should give you the tool you need for your analysis.

AFAIK the only cheating that could be there is possibly the AI knows the cards that it will get in hand if it plays cards that cause it to draw cards into hand from a random source. So while it can maximize these cards, there's no deck reshuffling going on during normal play. Normal draws are not cheated.

Hope this helps and gives you somewhere to look for cheats. Let me know what you find.

In any case I find teh game puts up a good fight. Especially Vulca Hoax seems really well balanced.

Thread: Re: Blue Moon AI improvements ?

blkdymnd — 2008-07-03T01:20:19+00:00

I just picked up the AI program, and it was also my first delving into Blue Moon as well. After three games of switching between the interface and FFG's rule pdf page, I finally got a handle on the game. And I got to say this is an incredibly well done program and will get a lot of desktop time from me. Made me also go out and buy the starter with 2 expansions today.

Praise aside, if you are still going to add things here and there, what about a user record? Maybe total win/loss vs the AI, and then also maybe a breakdown of win/loss with people vs people (so it could have my record of Hoax vs. each opponent, Vulca vs. each opponent, etc.)

Again, nice work and thanks.

Thread: Re: Blue Moon AI released

Dearlove — 2008-07-02T09:22:32+00:00

riddle13 wrote:
you have 1) accused me of having a closed mind

Actually you advertised that yourself.

riddle13 wrote:
nothing will convince me otherwise

is basically the definition of a closed mind.

2) insinuated that i'm merely a bad player who is broadcasting my inadequacy onto this innocent program.

Whereas since generating a planned non-random hand would take specific coding to achieve, as it's not very likely to happen by accident, you've essentially accused the author of the AI of being a liar, because he has claimed it's a fair program.

Being a poor player is just one of those things, it's not an indictment of moral failure. The other is.

There are proverbs about pots and kettles, or if you prefer, motes and beams.

No, I haven't seen the source code, so I don't absolutely know it's fair. But I do know enough about probabilities to know that apparent flukes are more common than people realise, about human nature to know that people remember the "bad beats" and forget when they didn't happen, and about the game to know that management of gangs is likely to be what the AI plans for and is likely to be quite good at, to regard the apparent luck (which ironically I think I might have been the first person to make what was intended to be a humorous aside about here) as not as flukish as it might appear. Coupled with that I tend to not assume that people are dishonest without evidence, and that the author of the AI comes over as a good chap - who don't forget has done all this for free (I tend to have a soft spot for people who do free stuff on Blue Moon, can't think why).

So all in all the "the program cheats" fails to pass any tests. And anyone who comes along and insists that it does, with no evidence (anecdotes are not evidence) and no desire to do anything but insist on his evidence-free hunches, is going to get a bumpy ride.

Thread: Re: Blue Moon AI released

MasterDinadan — 2008-07-02T09:15:41+00:00

riddle13 wrote:
look, both of you: STOP INSULTING ME!! it's rude and unnecessary.
you have 1) accused me of having a closed mind, and 2) insinuated that i'm merely a bad player who is broadcasting my inadequacy onto this innocent program.
both are wrong. i simply have an opinion that differs from yours, and so you choose to attack me.

i could not "prove" that this program cheats unless i could see the cards it's given throughout the game. i can't read source code, but it would seem to me that the AI gets a "less than random" selection of cards both at the start and throughout the game.

but if you guys are beating the AI all the time, than i can accept that i could be wrong and my play could be at fault. it's just that i've played this game enough to allow for some doubt.

you don't have to be jerks about it.

Stop throwing around accusations then. All they are trying to say is that the AI is so familiar with BOTH decks being played, that it already knows exactly what kind of situation is ideal for certain cards to be played. If there is a strong chance that that situation will arise given the deck matchup, it's going to hold on to the card that's perfect for that situation. That's good play.

There have been many times that I've played where the AI has been unable to respond to even the simplest of attacks. I've played games where I won on the third battle. I played 6 cards in my combat area won, he discarded cards, I played a modest earth value and he retreated, discard again. I played another modest earth value and he retreated again, losing the game. That's bad luck on the AI's part. If he had been cheating, he would have just drawn an earth card he needed to combat me.

It seems to me highly unlikely that the AI would at some times decide to "cheat" and pull a good card out of the deck instead of at random, and then at other times get completely worthless cards that literally cost it the game. It just doesn't make any sense.

So I think the problem is that you are making assumptions and throwing out accusations when the only evidence you have that the AI is resorting to unfair play can easily be attributed to smart play and a certain degree of luck. If you were playing face to face and your opponent consistently managed to make great plays, would you accuse him of cheating too?

Thread: Re: Blue Moon AI released

riddle13 — 2008-07-02T08:43:17+00:00

look, both of you: STOP INSULTING ME!! it's rude and unnecessary.
you have 1) accused me of having a closed mind, and 2) insinuated that i'm merely a bad player who is broadcasting my inadequacy onto this innocent program.
both are wrong. i simply have an opinion that differs from yours, and so you choose to attack me.

i could not "prove" that this program cheats unless i could see the cards it's given throughout the game. i can't read source code, but it would seem to me that the AI gets a "less than random" selection of cards both at the start and throughout the game.

but if you guys are beating the AI all the time, than i can accept that i could be wrong and my play could be at fault. it's just that i've played this game enough to allow for some doubt.

you don't have to be jerks about it.

Thread: Re: Blue Moon AI released

pastabatman — 2008-07-02T08:30:43+00:00

Dearlove wrote:
One problem with probabilities is that most people have an intuitive feel for probability. But that intuition is wrong.
Very true. I find the this juxtaposition of mathematics and human psychology fascinating. Usually one encounters it in gamblers, but it's really interesting to see it crop up in this case, where Keldon obviously has no motive to make the AI cheat and makes the source code available to everyone.

Riddle, if you truly think the AI is cheating, how about posting a log of a session that demonstrates this to the Sessions forum? I understand you have a closed mind on this, but at least it will provide others with a concrete example to discuss. At this point, all we have is your assertion that the AI cheats. Prove it.

Thread: Re: Blue Moon AI released

Dearlove — 2008-07-02T06:55:38+00:00

riddle13 wrote:
the AI is a REALLY GOOD player but it also CHEATS. nothing will convince me otherwise.

Actually, there's no real point replying to someone who has a closed mind. (You said it, not me.) But for some reason I'm bothering.

Incidentally ironically the author has just indicated that the AI wasn't using some information it did have, rather than the converse.

the Khind match-up is where the cheating is most evident, as the AI has beneficial groupings of gang members on a much greater probability than random chance

Of course which gang members you have isn't just random chance. Play affects this. Good play in particular. And judging random chance isn't obvious either. One problem with probabilities is that most people have an intuitive feel for probability. But that intuition is wrong.

or that i ever get playing the Khind against the AI.

Maybe your play could be better.

Thread: Re: Single Player PC Version with AI

riddle13 — 2008-07-02T06:09:14+00:00

Octavian wrote:
riddle13 - I replied to this comment in the other thread you posted it in: http://www.boardgamegeek.com/article/2339016#2339016

Short version of response: play better :p

-MMM
i hate it when admin are rude. :thumbsdown:

Thread: Re: Blue Moon AI released

riddle13 — 2008-07-02T06:06:00+00:00

Octavian wrote:
riddle13 wrote:

I HATE IT!!!!!

it obviously cheats!!! it always has just the right cards and seems to know what you will be forced to play next.

This is what we, in psychology, call a self-serving attribution. The AI isn't cheating. It's playing so well that it appears like it is omniscient.

Though random events tend to be evenly distributed, it is certainly possible to set yourself up to benefit from them more or less often. The AI looks like it has the perfect cards for situations because it learns how to set those situations to come up more often. If it knows that card X is optimally used against card Y in the opposing deck it will tend to hold onto it until card Y is played. That's anything but cheating.

-MMM
yes, the AI is a REALLY GOOD player but it also CHEATS. nothing will convince me otherwise. if there is only one card in the AI's deck that can foil your play, it HAS it, every time. smart play is one thing; having certain cards exactly when you need them is another. also, the Khind match-up is where the cheating is most evident, as the AI has beneficial groupings of gang members on a much greater probability than random chance or that i ever get playing the Khind against the AI.

Thread: Re: Blue Moon AI improvements ?

mrkeldon — 2008-07-01T04:37:35+00:00

I have been working on the Blue Moon AI quite a bit over the last couple of months. The Buka are finished, and the neural networks are nearly done training.

I've also been working on a new feature to improve the performance of the Pillar. To put it simply: when the opponent's hand is known (due to disclose cards, but also at the end of a game), the AI will tend to choose moves that are guaranteed to result in a forced retreat. It's a very restricted form of look-ahead, but it seems to work well. The relative ranking of the Pillar has increased (not all results are in) by a couple of spots, and the disclose cards aren't immediately discarded at the first opportunity.

I haven't done any coding related to deck-building, but I've done a lot of thinking about it. Once the Buka release is out, and all the bugs fixed (the Buka introduced a lot of changes, and certainly many bugs), I'll see what I can do.

Thread: Re: Blue Moon AI improvements ?

Dearlove — 2008-06-29T07:34:55+00:00

Jowjow wrote:
Irecall Keldon stating in another post that he's working on the Buka now but only sparingly due to other life stuff he's working on at the moment.

He's also been experimenting with a Race for the Galaxy AI, see a thread under that game.

Thread: Re: Blue Moon AI improvements ?

Jowjow — 2008-06-29T06:20:12+00:00

Irecall Keldon stating in another post that he's working on the Buka now but only sparingly due to other life stuff he's working on at the moment.

Thread: Re: [POLL] Your favorite peoples

cannoneer — 2008-06-29T05:12:07+00:00

I haven't played any of the peoples a lot, but I really like the Aqua. So much so that I bought another pack after spilling water (no kidding) on the closed deck box and not seeing it. The water seeped into the deck box and started the card faces separating from their backs. It was a fitting, if rather traumatic, end. So I bought another pack. I really like the different characters and the way that you can discard cards and get them all back. I will say that the most miserably long and boring game of BM I've ever played was Aqua vs. Flit though...thought the decks would NEVER run out!