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Joe's take on SdJ 2006
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Since I seem to be in a minority here in finding the SdJ a very useful award (last year, for instance, introducing me to Verflixxt! / That's Life), my guesses as to the five games that will be nominated, the game I think will win, and other games I think have a reasonable chance (or are notable but which I don't believe have a chance). Please note - the following represents only my guesses at what the SdJ jury will do based upon past behavior and the games available. There are people with more insight than I into the process who've made far different picks, so take this FWIW. Comments and other picks most welcome.
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Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 2:47 pm
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First, my record.
I always find it most interesting to see predictions when the predictor actually provides a picture of how they've done in the past. I've mostly just guessed at winners - the nominations I've guessed at I've done even worse at - but here's the picture...
(FWIW, each guess was made before the nomination list was released - it's more fun that way...)
1998 - Elfenland (correct)
1999 - Ricochet Robot (actual winner - Tikal)
2000 - Torres (correct)
2001 - Carcassonne (correct)
2002 - I don't recall my pick, but it wasn't Villa Paletti
2003 - No pick made
2004 - Ticket To Ride (correct)
2005 - Niagara (correct)
Now, to be fair, I thought Niagara the most likely winner by the narrowest of margains...
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Joe's pick for SdJ 2006
Odds of being nominated - 85%
Odds of winning - 30%
While this is the game I think most likely to win, it's not a Elfenland / Carcassonne / Ticket To Ride year, when there's a clear favorite.
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3.
Board Game: Masons
[Average Rating:6.74 Overall Rank:470]
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Joe's pick to be nominated for SdJ 2006
Odds of being nominated - 40%
Odds of winning - 10%
I believe that _either_ this or Thurn & Taxis will be nominated. I believe Hacienda is a shoe-in for a nomination, and there's no way the jury will pick three games from a single company.
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Joe's pick to be nominated for SdJ 2006
Odds of being nominated - 70%
Odds of winning - 15%
Seems a clear choice among the heavier-but-not-heavy games.
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Joe's pick to be nominated for SdJ 2006
Odds of being nominated - 35%
Odds of winning - 10%
To predict nominees, one must balance heavier and ligher games. Innovation seems to count with the jury, and I think this game stands out without overbalancing toward light games.
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6.
Board Game: Aton
[Average Rating:7.10 Overall Rank:269]
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Joe's pick to be nominated for SdJ 2006
Odds of being nominated - 40%
Odds of winning - 0%
The SdJ jury always likes to include a 2 player game among the nominees, and I expect this year to be no exception. The bigger problem is figuring out _which_ two player game will be nominated; by my figuring, there's three good candidates this year.
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7.
Board Game: Hive
[Average Rating:7.41 Overall Rank:82]
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Another nomination possibility
Odds of being nominated - 20%
Odds of winning - 0%
The darkhorse among the two player games, the new edition makes the game very much SdJ-eligible, and it wouldn't be a shock to see it on the list. I very much expect it to be on the recommended list.
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Another nomination possibility
Odds of being nominated - 30%
Odds of winning - 0%
Could this be the year for Knizia? Well, no, but he's got a decent chance at another nomination. I think Aton's more likely based both upon the game and the publisher, but this game wouldn't shock me at all if nominated. While I do think a two player game might win some year, I don't see any of the potential nominees as strong enough to make this the year.
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Another nomination possibility
Odds of being nominated - 35%
Odds of winning - 10%
While this, Mauer Bauer, _and_ Hacienda won't all be nominated, it's entirely possible I've picked the wrong two - and if nominated, I think this game has a chance of winning.
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Another nomination possibility
Odds of being nominated - 20%
Odds of winning - 5%
This game hasn't received much SdJ buzz that I've seen, but the re-release of a popular game from a small publisher can definitely capture a nomination, and Oltremare wouldn't surprise me at all
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Slim chance
Odds of being nominated - 10%
Odds of winning - 0%
I can see "another Settlers product" being nominated, I suppose, but not winning.
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Slim chance
Odds of being nominated - 10%
Odds of winning - 5%
I don't believe this will be nominated - but if it is, there's a chance it will win.
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Slim chance
Odds of being nominated - 5%
Odds of winning - 0%
I don't think it likely, but I suppose it's got a chance of being nominated. I don't think it can win, however.
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14.
Board Game: Caylus
[Average Rating:8.02 Overall Rank:10]
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No realistic chance
Odds of being nominated - 0%
Odds of winning - 0%
While much talked about as the best game of the period, the length and complexity are such that I think Caylus exceptionally unlikely to be nominated - though, as with Die Macher in 1998, it may well be recommended. (And yes, I realize Die Macher was "nominated" in 1998, but that's roughly the current equivalent of being "recommended" due to the changes in the system since then.)
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No realistic chance
Odds of being nominated - 0%
Odds of winning - 0%
Included here only because it's _my_ favorite release during the time period.
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No realistic chance
Odds of being nominated - 0%
Odds of winning - 0%
While I've seen this on a number of lists, it's not different enough from the original to merit a nomination. Might make the recommended list...
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The field.
If you look through the percentages above, there's 100% of the odds of nomination missing, and 15% of the odds of winning. I expect one nominee to be missing from this list, and that nominee to have at least a 15% chance among the actual nominees. The jury often surprises me - I'll point to Himalaya last year as a game I thought had no chance of being nominated.
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Posted Tue Apr 25, 2006 2:47 pm
