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Joe's take on SdJ 2006
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Since I seem to be in a minority here in finding the SdJ a very useful award (last year, for instance, introducing me to Verflixxt! / That's Life), my guesses as to the five games that will be nominated, the game I think will win, and other games I think have a reasonable chance (or are notable but which I don't believe have a chance). Please note - the following represents only my guesses at what the SdJ jury will do based upon past behavior and the games available. There are people with more insight than I into the process who've made far different picks, so take this FWIW. Comments and other picks most welcome.
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Posted On: 2006-04-25 08:47:37
Edited On: 2006-04-25 08:47:37
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First, my record.
I always find it most interesting to see predictions when the predictor actually provides a picture of how they've done in the past. I've mostly just guessed at winners - the nominations I've guessed at I've done even worse at - but here's the picture...
(FWIW, each guess was made before the nomination list was released - it's more fun that way...)
1998 - Elfenland (correct)
1999 - Ricochet Robot (actual winner - Tikal)
2000 - Torres (correct)
2001 - Carcassonne (correct)
2002 - I don't recall my pick, but it wasn't Villa Paletti
2003 - No pick made
2004 - Ticket To Ride (correct)
2005 - Niagara (correct)
Now, to be fair, I thought Niagara the most likely winner by the narrowest of margains... |
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Posted On: 2006-04-25 08:47:37
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Joe's pick for SdJ 2006
Odds of being nominated - 85%
Odds of winning - 30%
While this is the game I think most likely to win, it's not a Elfenland / Carcassonne / Ticket To Ride year, when there's a clear favorite. |
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4 Comments []
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Posted On: 2006-04-25 08:47:37
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Joe's pick to be nominated for SdJ 2006
Odds of being nominated - 40%
Odds of winning - 10%
I believe that _either_ this or Thurn & Taxis will be nominated. I believe Hacienda is a shoe-in for a nomination, and there's no way the jury will pick three games from a single company. |
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4 Comments []
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Posted On: 2006-04-25 08:47:37
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Joe's pick to be nominated for SdJ 2006
Odds of being nominated - 70%
Odds of winning - 15%
Seems a clear choice among the heavier-but-not-heavy games. |
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2 Comments []
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Posted On: 2006-04-25 08:47:37
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Joe's pick to be nominated for SdJ 2006
Odds of being nominated - 35%
Odds of winning - 10%
To predict nominees, one must balance heavier and ligher games. Innovation seems to count with the jury, and I think this game stands out without overbalancing toward light games. |
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Posted On: 2006-04-25 08:47:37
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6.
Aton [Average Rating:7.17 Overall Rank:259]
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Joe's pick to be nominated for SdJ 2006
Odds of being nominated - 40%
Odds of winning - 0%
The SdJ jury always likes to include a 2 player game among the nominees, and I expect this year to be no exception. The bigger problem is figuring out _which_ two player game will be nominated; by my figuring, there's three good candidates this year. |
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Posted On: 2006-04-25 08:47:37
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7.
Hive [Average Rating:7.49 Overall Rank:71]
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Another nomination possibility
Odds of being nominated - 20%
Odds of winning - 0%
The darkhorse among the two player games, the new edition makes the game very much SdJ-eligible, and it wouldn't be a shock to see it on the list. I very much expect it to be on the recommended list. |
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Posted On: 2006-04-25 08:47:37
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Posted On: 2006-04-25 15:35:35
