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How they aging? Second thoughts/precious ratings: 5-12 year old wargames.
David Dockter
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Took a look recently at the wargame class of 2011 & 2012 regarding owners' Second thoughts, precious and fan ratios.

The ratios explained:

http://www.boardgamegeek.com/geeklist/145383

Thought I would do the same for games that have been out a few years.

So, the ratios:

Second thoughts?

# trading/# owning....higher ratio indicates "maybe I shouldn't have purchased this game".



Precious?

# wanting/#trading... a high ratio indicates "you can't possibly pry my copy of this title from my hands"



Fans?

Simply the number of fans/number of owners




I examined wargames published from 2000 > 2007 (heard someplace that it takes five years for a wargame to really establish it's reputation in the hobby). All the games listed had to have at least 150 ratings. About 50 titles or 6/yr during this period.

I do wish BGG would add a few of these stats to their game pages: call one "market sentiment {want vs trade} or LUST {want vs own}. I think these would actually be truer measures of how gamers rate games. And, it would scrub out the miserable "cult of the new" effect.

We'll use basically the same buckets as before:

1) "OMG!"

1-2% second thought ratings (lowest in among all the games) and 10x+ precious ratings (highest among all the games). Also, fan percentages 6% or higher (among highest of all the games).

2) "Hotties"

1-2% second thought ratio and a 3x to 8x precious rating...

3) "Some of the shine is gone, but, still highly coveted"

3%-4% second thought with a precious rating at least 2x

4) "Rodney Dangerfield"

Games with higher second thought ratios and lower precious ratios than probably had before.

5) "Jersey Shore"

Same as Dangerfield, but precious ratings 1x or lower and some very low fan bases. Could be headed to NERO LAND.

6) "NERO LAND"

10%+ second thoughts ratio, rock bottom precious rating and very low fan bases


-------------

5 of the top 45 titles are Mr.Berg's (quite a productive 7 years)...and 2 Berg designs in Nero Land.

17 of the top 45 titles are GMTs, 5 are MMPs, 4 for Columbia, 2 for Clash and mix of game co's accounting for the remaining third.

16 of the top 45 titles are WW2 - about a third. Great to see so many non-WW2 designs.
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1. Board Game: Case Blue [Average Rating:8.27 Overall Rank:1504]
David Dockter
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OMG!

Case Blue. zombie Was there really ever any serious doubt?*

Second thoughts? 1%....only 1% of owners want to trade their copy

Precious? 17x.....17 times the number of people that want a copy of this game vs those that want to trade it away.

Fanboys & girls: 8%....Fans divided by owners

Heaviest game on the whole list I believe - checking in at 4.6 game weight. All hail the wargamers arrrh

33 ranked in top 100 BGG wargames; what gives?

* had no idea this would appear at the top of the list. Did the analysis and there it was. Really had a laugh.
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2. Board Game: Maria [Average Rating:7.99 Overall Rank:157]
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My apologies to Maria. Missed it when I first did the list. She should have actually led the list, but, the nutcase Case Blue tribe would blow a sprocket if I changed things around now: Maria will have to stay on bottom.

Maria's stats:

Second thoughts? 1%

Precious? 20x.

Fans 8%

Currently 12th top ranked wargame on BGG

Here's a nice quality vs quantity stat for you (MacDonalds will sell more burgers today than the best steak joints sell steaks all year):

OMG! games = 3,333 owners

NERO LAND games = 5,334 owners

And, I'd guess that the NERO LAND games have MANY more actual sales. I'd peg the OMG!'s at 4x (4x actual owners times BGG owner reported).... 13k copies. NERO LAND? I'd go at least 6x - maybe higher....30k copies.

Why 4x? I know some of the actual print runs for games and compare that with owners reported on BGG. I'm guessing that the hardcore games have the types of gamers that are more into reporting their stats than the audience for more popular/more accessible games. Who knows?

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3. Board Game: Whistling Death [Average Rating:8.23 Overall Rank:1883]
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Air war.

Second thoughts? 2%

Precious? 11x.

Fans? 6%

Another heavyweight at 4.4

Ranked at 135 for wargames on BGG. That ranking doesn't really match with these stats.
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4. Board Game: Triumph of Chaos [Average Rating:7.60 Overall Rank:1499]
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Russian Civil War

Second thoughts? 2%

Precious? 10x

Fans? 6%

Another fatboy at 4.3 game weight. Only game in the OMG! group with less than a 8.0 overall game rating. Currently ranked 96 among BGG Top 100 wargame list.
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5. Board Game: EastFront II [Average Rating:8.08 Overall Rank:773]
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Blockheads rejoice. Great game.

Second thoughts? 2%

Precious? 10x.

Fans? 9%

Currently ranked at 21 among Top 100 BGG wargames.

Interesting those ranking for the OMG! games and their fan base:

Maria: 8% fans = 12 ranked ...sequel
EastFront2: 9% fans = 21 ranked ...series game
Case Blue: 8% fans = 33 ranked ...series game
Triumph of Chaos: 6% fans = 96 ranked
Whistling Death: 6% fans = 134 ranked ....series game

Regardless of whether you think TS is a wargame (I do - it has a tank counter!), TS's ranking 1 - a NON series game, is an incredible achievement. 1,255 fans out of 14,118 owners - 9%. And, it didn't have a "head of steam" in the ratings prior to being published - that's a new thing on BGG - A BUMCH of "friendly" ratings PRIOR to being published.

I have no idea if a higher % of fans means the non-fans stayed away or the game was able to really capture that much of a fan base from who purchased the game. On the other list (of 2011/2012 wargames), one game in "The Bitter Land of Buyer's Remorse?", Divided Republic, a Kickstarter Game, has a 20%! fan base - and a 12% "second thoughts" ratio.

I really think BGG better start including some of these ratios on the game ratings page perform the "head of steam" and the "the cult of the new" really skew the game ratings; if they care Me? I've always looked at three things on BGG to influence my purchase:

1) Comments (in the game comments - who is making them and what is the quality of the comment?

2) Reviews/AARs

3) Game weight vs rating and things like the precious ratio (expressed market sentiment)

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6. Board Game: Here I Stand [Average Rating:7.96 Overall Rank:83]
David Dockter
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Hotties

Was there any doubt on what would lead the list of Hotties? Luther and some cards. 2800 owners. Sequel is also out now and in the OMG! category. VERY difficult to design a somewhat complex multiplayer wargame that grabs the hobby. This is it. Only Maria (probably Friedrich also), PAX Romana and Nappy Wars in that group in the last dozen years. No WWII game. Hobby is dying for one: something in between A&A and WiF. It will sell a bazillion copies.

Second thoughts? 2%

Precious? 8x.

Fans 8%

And, yet another fatty at a game weight of 4.1 - making four of the top 6 ranked games here a weight of 4.0. Bring us more MEATY/COMPLEX games! However, I would note that, Attack!, firmly in NERO LAND, game 44# on the list below, has 2,500+ owners zombie
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7. Board Game: Napoleon's Triumph [Average Rating:7.98 Overall Rank:189]
David Dockter
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Second thoughts? 2%

Precious? 7x.

Fans 7%
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8. Board Game: Grant Takes Command [Average Rating:7.93 Overall Rank:1631]
David Dockter
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Wonderful GCACW series from AH classic/MMP.

Second thoughts? 2%

Precious? 6x.

Fans 1% (VERY low for the Hottie group).
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9. Board Game: Twilight Struggle [Average Rating:8.34 Overall Rank:1]
David Dockter
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Second thoughts? 2%

Precious? 4x.

Fans 9%

Top rated wargame, strategy game and game...still have a playtest copy in the closet :-) Damm impressive, Mr.Mathews and Mr.Gupta...14k owners reported on BGG. Remember you guys setting up at WBC (when WBC was at Hunt Valley in Baltimore) with your playtest copy. Good times.
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10. Board Game: World at War: Eisenbach Gap [Average Rating:7.54 Overall Rank:949]
David Dockter
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Second thoughts? 2%

Precious? 4x.

Fans 7%

Lowest game rating (7.57) in Hottie or OMG! group, despite relatively recent publish date.
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11. Board Game: War of the Ring (first edition) [Average Rating:7.85 Overall Rank:34]
David Dockter
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10k owners on BGG now.

Second thoughts? 2%

Precious? 3x

Fans 6%
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12. Board Game: Bitter Woods (fourth edition) [Average Rating:7.68 Overall Rank:1584]
David Dockter
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Some of the shine is gone, but still highly coveted.

The Bulge.

Second thoughts? 3%

Precious? 5x.

Fans 2%
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13. Board Game: A Victory Lost [Average Rating:7.68 Overall Rank:595]
David Dockter
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East front WW2

Second thoughts? 3%

Precious? 5x.

Fans 3%
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14. Board Game: Hammer of the Scots [Average Rating:7.59 Overall Rank:174]
David Dockter
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More blocks. 3200+ owners

Second thoughts? 3%

Precious? 5x

Fans 3%
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15. Board Game: Combat Commander: Europe [Average Rating:7.93 Overall Rank:50]
David Dockter
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Second thoughts? 2%

Precious? 3x.

Fans? 10%

Quite a few new WW2 tactical systems introduced in the last decade. WBC had a tourney last year of CC with each scenario a WW2 movie (starting with Kelly's Heroes). Very cool.
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16. Board Game: Ardennes '44 [Average Rating:7.95 Overall Rank:918]
David Dockter
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More Bulge.

Second thoughts? 3%

Precious? 3x.

Fans 4%
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17. Board Game: The Napoleonic Wars (Second Edition) [Average Rating:7.41 Overall Rank:862]
David Dockter
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Second thoughts? 3%

Precious? 3x.

Fans 5%
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18. Board Game: Empire of the Sun [Average Rating:7.73 Overall Rank:675]
David Dockter
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WW2 Pacific. Fantastic game.

Second thoughts? 3%

Precious? 3x.

Fans 4%

Game weight of 4.0
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19. Board Game: Wilderness War [Average Rating:7.72 Overall Rank:361]
David Dockter
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WBC tourney game for a decade+ 2000 owners

Second thoughts? 3%

Precious? 3x.

Fans 3%
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20. Board Game: Red Star Rising: The War in Russia, 1941-1944 [Average Rating:7.58 Overall Rank:2140]
David Dockter
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WW2 East Front

Second thoughts? 3%

Precious? 3x.

Fans 3%
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21. Board Game: Thirty Years War: Europe in Agony, 1618-1648 [Average Rating:6.78 Overall Rank:1672]
David Dockter
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Took a hammering on the boards when appeared*, but stats say its reputation is climbing. And, I've heard from a few folks this warrants another look.

Second thoughts? 2%

Precious? 2x.

Fans 3%

One of two games in top 23 with an overall game rating of less than 7.0

* Another aside. I think 30W was the first CDW to run into the "CDW shakedown cruise buzzsaw". 30W was published in 2001; two years after PoG and when CDWs were really starting to take off (ACTS, WBC, Cyberboard, etc). So, the tribe playing highly successful WtP, HRC, FtP and PoG was dying for more titles. I think was the first game that got put thru that buzzsaw.

All four of those titles are "tourney" games (well, PoG and FtP are actually a VERY rare breed - "tourney/experience" games. I believe that was the lens that 30W initially got judged by; would it be a great tourney or tourney/experience game. Lots of initial posts that it didn't pass that test, so many of those players moved on and 30w's reputation was impacted. This now happens with any CDW that comes out; Is it a great tourney game? Some pass (ex: Twilight Struggle), some don't. Of those that don't, some of those go on to build a loyal following (ex: Pursuit of Glory).

As I indicated, I've been hearing lately that 30W warrants a second look from those of us that may have originally passed on it. The stats above also indicate that. Time for me to take my copy off the shelves and give it another look. I believe there has been a substantial rules revisions since first issued; newest rules set looks like 2007.
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22. Board Game: Sword of Rome [Average Rating:7.33 Overall Rank:557]
David Dockter
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Second thoughts? 3%

Precious? 2x

Fans? 3%

Eight CDW (Card Driven Wargames) in the top 22 on the list.
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23. Board Game: The Rise of the Roman Republic [Average Rating:6.88 Overall Rank:2730]
David Dockter
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Been trying to acquire a copy of this for some time.

Second thoughts? 3%

Precious? 2x

Fans 1%

Only 2nd game in group of top 23 with overall game rating less than 7.0
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24. Board Game: Friedrich [Average Rating:7.57 Overall Rank:273]
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2000 owners

Second thoughts? 4%

Precious? 4x.

Fans 4%
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25. Board Game: Crusader Rex [Average Rating:7.20 Overall Rank:756]
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More blocks (3rd title in the top 25 games listed here)

Second thoughts? 4%

Precious? 4x

Fans 2%
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