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Detrending the Top 200 Games: Removing the Bandwagon Effect to Get Alternative Rankings
Zelvis 2012!
United States
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Update: I would direct interested parties to http://www.boardgamegeek.com/thread/221606 for a more rigorous and appropriate analysis of the ranking data. The model includes filters for popularity of differing degrees depending on the desire of the user and incorporate probabilistic statements of strength into the ratings interpretation.
On a couple previous Geeklists that I posted concerned with the analysis of game ratings, some fellow geeks brought up the possibility that how many times a game has been rated influences its rank (with the majority of comments leaning towards the unfairly boosts the rank of games perspective).
This Geeklist looks at the relationship between the number of ratings and the rank of games in the following manner:
1. A linear model is fit to the data (perhaps not the most accurate, but I didn't want to capitalize too much on the nature of the data). Standard linear regression was used on the ranks of both the games and the ranking in terms of the number of ratings (see the graph below)
2. The original data are detrended (sometimes called residualized). This step wil remove the influence the number of ratings has on a game's ranking, allowing the comparison between games as if they had an equal number of ratings.
3. New rankings are computed based on the residuals.
I noted this in a response below, but I will repeat this here. The List is not meant to fix all the current rankings and offer a new and perfect system. The goal is to show what happens when the #ratings is controlled for and gain comments (hopefully insightful) from the BGG community to help understand what is driving some of these ratings. This 1st attempt is based on some prior comments I received on other Geek Lists.
Conclusions: There are some definite bandwagon effects where it appears that more ratings do indeed "boost" a games rating. The correlation between the number of ratings and a games rank is a moderate .3685--indicating that the number of ratings a game receives accounts for about 13% of the information (i.e., variance) in its ranking. Removing this variance results in a different ranking that only includes the information not due to the number of ratings. Furthermore, upon looking at the biggest losses and biggest gains, they fit nicely with many user intuitions that some games are overrated (biggest losers) while some games are underrated (biggest gains).
Asumptions: The number of ratings shouldn't influence the rankings. It could be argued that better games will be rated more; however, it is convenient to assume that all games will be rated an equal number of times if we could infinitely sample and then the number of ratings would not have an effect on the overall rankings.
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Zelvis 2012!
United States
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NEW TOP 10
1. Hannibal 2. Paths of Glory 3. Combat Commander 4. Tide of Iron 5. Age of Empires 6. Shogun 7. Die Macher 8. Up Front 9. Roads and Boats 10. C&C: Ancients
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Zelvis 2012!
United States
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WHERE ARE THE OLD TOP 10
6. Shogun 11. Twilight Struggle 19. Age of Steam 20. Battlelore 26. Power Grid 29. Puerto Rico 31. Princes of Florence 32. Tigris & Euphrates 34. Caylus 35. El Grande
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Zelvis 2012!
United States
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10 BIGGEST GAINS
56. ASL Starter Kit #2 (+44) 68. A Victory Lost (+41) 14. Through the Ages (+41) 12. Blood Bowl: Living Rule Book (+40) 59. East Front (+39) 49. Bonaparte at Marengo (+39) 66. Here I Stand (+38) 28. ASL Starter Kit #1 (+37) 24. Europe Engulfed (+37) 100. Warmachine (+35)
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Zelvis 2012!
United States
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10 BIGGEST LOSSES
162. Bohnanza (-41) 89. Carcassonne (-38) 120. Lost Cities (-38) 127. Citadels (-38) 180. Alhambra (-38) 138. Carcassonne: Hunters & Gatherers (-35) 163. Magic the Gathering (-34) 72. Ticket to Ride (-33) 92. Through the Desert (-33) 105. RoboRally (-33)
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Zelvis 2012!
United States
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11-20
11. Twilight Struggle 12. Blood Bowl: Living Rule Book 13. Imperial 14. Through the Ages 15. Lord of the Rings: Confrontation (Deluxe) 16. YINSH 17. Crokinole 18. Hammer of the Scots 19. Age of Steam 20. Battlelore
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Zelvis 2012!
United States
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21-30
21. Advanced Squad Leader 22. Struggle of Empires 23. Wallenstein 24. Europe Engulfed 25. Railroad Tycoon 26. Power Grid 27. War of the Ring 28. Advanced Squad Leader Starter Kit #1 29. Puerto Rico 30. Tichu
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Zelvis 2012!
United States
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31-40
31. Princes of Florence 32. Tigris & Euphrates 33. Goa 34. Caylus 35. El Grande 36. Twilight Imperium 3rd Edition 37. Go 38. Dune 39. Taj Mahal 40. Notre Dame
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8.
Board Game: Ra
[Average Rating:7.60 Overall Rank:48]

Zelvis 2012!
United States
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41-50
41. Ra 42. Antiquity 43. Friedrich 44. Ticke to Ride: Marklin 45. DVONN 46. Samurai 47. Pillars of the Earth 48. Modern Art 49. Bonaparte at Marengo 50. Reef Encounter
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Zelvis 2012!
United States
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51-60
51. 1830: The Game of Railroads and Robber Barons 52. Memoir '44 53. Settlers of Catan 54. Republic of rome 55. Carcassonne: The City 56. Advanced Squad Leader Starter Kit #2 57. Amun-Re 58. Battle Line 59. East Front 60. Ticket to Ride: Europe
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Zelvis 2012!
United States
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61-70
61. Game of Thrones 62. Hollywood Blockbuster 63. Maharaja 64. San Juan 65. Yspahan 66. Here I Stand 67. Traders of Genoa 68. A Victory Lost 69. Princes of the Renaissance 70. Union Pacific
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Zelvis 2012!
United States
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71-80
71. Time's Up! 72. Ticket to Ride 73. Wilderness War 74. Space Hulk 75. Lord of the Rings: Confrontation 76. Ingenious 77. Mr. Jack 78. Acquire 79. La Citta 80. Antike
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Zelvis 2012!
United States
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81-90
81. Civilization 82. ZERTZ 83. Web of Power 84. Thebes 85. hive 86. Blood Bowl, 3rd Edition 87. Blue Moon City 88. Descent 89. Carcassonne 90. Louis XIV
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13.
Board Game: Tikal
[Average Rating:7.40 Overall Rank:107]

Zelvis 2012!
United States
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91-100
91. Tikal 92. Through the Desert 93. Indonesia 94. Caylus Magna Carta 95. Rommel in the Desert 96. Santiago 97. Breakout: Normandy 98. Bridge 99. Fury of Dracula 100. Warmachine
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14.
Board Game: Torres
[Average Rating:7.24 Overall Rank:184]

Zelvis 2012!
United States
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101-110
101. Torres 102. We the People 103. Leonardo da Vinci 104. Squad Leader 105. RoboRally 106. Keythedral 107. Arkham Horror 108. Battle Cry 109. Thurn and Taxis 110. Blokus
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Zelvis 2012!
United States
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111-120
111. Schotten Totten 112. Ys 113. Scepter of Zavandor 114. Medici 115. Domaine 116. Star Wars: Queen's Gambit 117. Netrunner 118. Vegas Showdown 119. For Sale 120. Lost Cities
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16.
Board Game: Vinci
[Average Rating:7.24 Overall Rank:217]

Zelvis 2012!
United States
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121-130
121. Vinci 122. Saint Petersburg 123. Lowenherz 124. Liberte 125. San Marco 126. China 127. Citadels 128. Carcassonne: The Castle 129. Pitch Car 130. Zendo
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17.
Board Game: 1856
[Average Rating:7.52 Overall Rank:283]

Zelvis 2012!
United States
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131-140
131. 1856 132. Shadows over Camelot 133. Jambo 134. Last Night on Earth, The Zombie Game 135. GIPF 136. Britannia 137. Hacienda 138. Carcassonne: Hunters & Gatherers 139. Mu & Mehr 140. Meuterer
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Zelvis 2012!
United States
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141-150
141. Arkadia 142. Primordial Soup 143. Mykerinos 144. Travel Blokus 145. Attika 146. Ark of the Covenant 147. Showmanager 148. Funkenschlag 149. Chinatown 150. Nexus Ops
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Zelvis 2012!
United States
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151-160
151. HeroScape Master Set 152. Crusader Rex 153. Runebound 2nd Edition 154. In the Shadow of the Emperor 155. Taluva 156. Dreamblade 157. Werewolf 158. Colosseum 159. Dungeon Twister 160. Edel, Stein, and Reich
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Zelvis 2012!
United States
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161-170
161. Perikles 162. Bohnanza 163. Magic the Gathering 164. Warrior Knights 165. Vikings 166. Battlestations 167. Hey! That's My Fish! 168. Downfall of Pompeii 169. Hansa 170. Elasund
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Zelvis 2012!
United States
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171-180
171. Rumis 172. Stephenson's Rocket 173. Empries in Arms 174. Razzia 175. Blue Moon 176. Coloretto 177. Medina 178. Liar's Dice 179. Aladdin's Dragons 180. Alhambra
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Zelvis 2012!
United States
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181-190
181. Diplomacy 182. Ambush 183. Mah-Johngg 184. Java 185. Titan 186. Winner's Circle 187. Manila 188. History of the World 189. Kremlin 190. Atlantic Star
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Zelvis 2012!
United States
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191-200
191. Colossal Arena 192. Formula De 193. No Thanks 194. Carolus Magnus 195. Mystery Rummy: Jack the Ripper 196. Lord of the Rings 197. Can't Stop 198. Cosmic Encounter 199. Settlers of Catan 200. Chess
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