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A player who does very well in the early game in AoS is often likely to win, yes. This is true in many games. No guarantees tho and it isn't overwhelming. The classic case is short term income sacrifice versus long term deliveries. This is where I got waxed in this weekend's game of AoS:Wales. Richard simply timed his end-game runs better than the rest of us and had the extra Links capacity he needed to run them. A very nicely executed seemingly come-from-behind victory on his part. Ted was profitable on turn 3 while Richard and I were still paying ~$8ea in expenses and continued to be in the hole for many more turns. The difference was that Richard built his Links up faster and had the deliveries to feed it -- we didn't.
I was going to write about the comeback game--but JC beat me to it!

JC, Ted Alspach and me were playing JC's new prototype: for purposes of understanding the game there were two rules we were playing with:
- It had a way to allow longer than 6 link deliveries to be made.
- Because it was a three player game we using the "Temporary + 1" Loco rule from the Japan map.
Ted, chose to use the Locomotive to make 2 profitable runs, to boost early income and take the lead. By about turn 5 his income was about 27, mine was about 20. And he was no longer needing to take shares--while I would use my full allotment. But I had upgraded my train (permanently) once each and every turn--and could dliver 7 link routes. Ted was behind by 2 upgrades.
How'd I catch up?
Turn 6: Ted had urbanized a town to black city (he it needed badly), I was able to make a vital connection to start delivering black cubes. Ted upgraded and made only one delivery. I made 2 deliveries (in part due the black city Ted placed.) I actually took the lead in income on this turn due to Ted's upgrade--though I was still well behind since Ted took 5 fewer shares.
Turn 7: I took Urbanization, and placed a black city at the other end of my route and started a bypass--so I could deliver most of my remaining cubes for 7 or 8 links. Ted had to upgrade again. I now had a high enough income, I could beat Ted in the Auction.
Turn 8: I win the auction and get Locomotive--the pattern repeats over the final turns. I finished my bypass but needed to one link to a purple city in the south end of my line, which I started. Now I have routes for all my black cubes, With Loco I was now delivering 8's to Ted 7's.
Turn 9: I finish the route to the Purple city giving 4 key deliveries of length 8--enough to finish the rest of the game. Ted starts to run out of 7's and is forced deliver 6's. (I had taken all of the cubes in my area that Ted might have been able deliver for 6--leaving the cubes he had no interest in for later deliveries.)
In income, I went form 7 behind to 9 in front at the end. With a 5 share differential and 5 more tracks in Ted's favor--final result a win by 7 points.
The key was I had set myself up with a strong locomotive Stonger than the leader. I set up cubes for the long deliveries I'd need later in the game and made sure that they weren't useful for either Ted or JC to "steal". I made key builds to get all of the value out of my cubes.
In order to catch up you have:
- Develop your track network and improve your train. If haven't laid the groundwork, a comeback will never happen.
- Always look for your next delivery and ones after that and the ones after that. Not that you can plan everything, but if you don't plan for it, comeback won't happen.
- If you can see a delivery or track build that hurts the leader that you can take advantage of effectively (i.e hurt the leader, but don't hurt yourself too much to do it.)