Second place seems to be my lot in Dominion, but I have noticed a pattern. I will often have fewer estates than my opponents, and as many or more provinces, but I always have many fewer Duchies. I don't seem to have a good sense of when to buy a Duchy in preference to another card, or when to transition to buying Duchies.
It just comes down to sensing when the game is close to ending. If you're towards the end, but you can't afford a province, a duchy might be a good buy.
Allow me to introduce myself. I am Hexachlorophene J. Goodfortune, Kidnapper-At-Large, and Devourer of Tortoises par Excellence, at your service.
If you can read this, then this sentence is false.
As it happens, I just posted some related simulation results in another thread the other day. In a nutshell, I found that in a 2er game between Big Money-like decks, the best time to start buying Duchies in preference to other 5- or 6- cost cards is when there are 5 Provinces left in the supply, and the best time to start buying Estates is when there are 2 Provinces left in the supply.
I can't say exactly how that will generalize to multiplayer games yet, except that it's clear that you should start buying Duchies early. And of course you may get different results for more action-oriented or alternate-VP strategies.
I tend to play a lot of what I call 'sputtering decks'.
In my theory, my goal is to end the game right at the point where my deck is falling apart and almost unable to improve.
Unlike some other theories I don't go for 16 Coin hands, or even sustainable 8 Coin turns. This kind of strategy emphasizes late game Duchy buys over Province buys. The idea is to get to 3-5 Provinces earlier than other players and then let the deck sputter out with Duchy cards for the win.
In my view, when the game is nearing the last 3rd (which you can usually judge after enough games) I will take a Duchy over a Gold or 5 cost card. This means my deck begins to appreciably weaken but normally sustains enough strength to buy more Duchy cards. It is not uncommon to end with 3-4 Provinces, 3-4 Duchy cards and a 4-5 Estates. This isn't always enough for a win but usually competes well.
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slyde wrote:
on a quick first read of the title to this post, i thought it said something VERY different...
Right from my first few plays I have gone with the idea of starting to transition to favoring Victory buys once the 1/3 mark has been reached.
In other words: once 3 or 4 Provinces have been bought (especially if one player has bought more than one) or when 1 Supply deck has been emptied I begin looking at Duchies.
By this time, one or more decks have an engine going (hopefully yours is one of them) and you're actually probably closer to the middle of the game than only 1/3 in so it's time to start catching up.
Shouldn't you be playing a game with me instead of wasting time on the Internet?
I like to start buying duchies when I've bought half of the provinces I need to tie, or sooner if some of the piles are getting low. It depends greatly on what kingdom cards are available, of course.
The question you have to ask is 'would adding a duchie to my deck make it easier or harder to win?'
The most clear cut case is when you know you won't shuffle your deck again before the end of the game. If you won't be shuffling your deck again any buy that doesn't get you points is just a waste. This is sometimes easy to be able to determine, and other times it isn't quite as obvious.
The question you have to ask is 'would adding a duchie to my deck make it easier or harder to win?'
Isn't that essentially the same question though? If you know the answer to this question, then you will know when to buy duchies. If you don't know when to buy duchies, you will probably not know the answer to this question.
The most clear cut case is when you know you won't shuffle your deck again before the end of the game. If you won't be shuffling your deck again any buy that doesn't get you points is just a waste.
Almost as clear cut is if you're only going to go through your deck one more time. If you see the card one more time, if it were a Gold, at most it would be worth +3 points (i.e., let you buy a Province instead of a Duchy, or a Duchy instead of an Estate). So a Duchy is at least as good as a Gold if you're only going to draw it once.
I tend to agree that buying duchies is just kind of a feel for when the game is rapidly winding down. The other question I have, is it ever to early to buy a province? Part of me thinks no, you should always buy a province when able, but if somehow you are able to get one on round 3 or 4, maybe not? I don't know lol
My gut math on duchies says that you should buy them at such a time as you will see each card left in your deck no more than two times. Basically, the idea is that a victory point card in your deck MAY or MAY NOT cost you three VP due to downgrading your purchase power from a province to a duchy. If we say that it's 50% likely (number pulled out of my butt) that a VP card causes this downgrade, then it means that each duchy you see an extra time loses you 1.5 points on average. Since it's not 50% likely but in fact much lower (a VP card that takes a space meant for a copper, bringing your total down from nine to eight), I have started buying duchies much, much sooner.
This number is flexible for game conditions -- Tactician particularly changes this. But buying a bit early is usually better than buying a bit late.
Allow me to introduce myself. I am Hexachlorophene J. Goodfortune, Kidnapper-At-Large, and Devourer of Tortoises par Excellence, at your service.
If you can read this, then this sentence is false.
bestdanggames wrote:
I tend to agree that buying duchies is just kind of a feel for when the game is rapidly winding down. The other question I have, is it ever to early to buy a province? Part of me thinks no, you should always buy a province when able, but if somehow you are able to get one on round 3 or 4, maybe not? I don't know lol
Yes, it can be too early to buy a Province. There was another thread on this topic. There was strong consensus and empirical data showing that turn 3 or turn 4 is almost certainly too early. My own rule of thumb is that if I don't have any Gold yet, then it's too early to buy a Province.
The other question I have, is it ever to early to buy a province?
I've been wondering this too. For awhile I played that I always bought a Province if able. But I don't think that's always the best play.
If you get a (statistically speaking) miracle 8-coin hand in turn 3 (copper,copper,copper,copper,coppersmith would be a possible example) I think Gold (or maybe an action card, depending on cards available) is clearly a better buy than a Province. But at what point is a Province better? Turn 5? 6? Even later?
I tend to agree that buying duchies is just kind of a feel for when the game is rapidly winding down. The other question I have, is it ever to early to buy a province? Part of me thinks no, you should always buy a province when able, but if somehow you are able to get one on round 3 or 4, maybe not? I don't know lol
And that is dependant on whether or not you can easily replace 'dead' cards in your hand. If I have a couple of Cellars then buying vp cards earlier is less harmful than usual.
Deck circulation is the primary concern - when you think you're on your last two shuffles, you better be picking up duchies when you can/it makes sense.
It should go without saying that duchies are hard to earn to make up a province imbalance. Of course, having Gardens in makes buying Duchies far less attractive.
I tend to agree that buying duchies is just kind of a feel for when the game is rapidly winding down. The other question I have, is it ever to early to buy a province? Part of me thinks no, you should always buy a province when able, but if somehow you are able to get one on round 3 or 4, maybe not? I don't know lol
Yes, it can be too early to buy a Province. There was another thread on this topic. There was strong consensus and empirical data showing that turn 3 or turn 4 is almost certainly too early. My own rule of thumb is that if I don't have any Gold yet, then it's too early to buy a Province.
I do agree with this. My recommendation to a beginner is buy the Province anyway, while an intermediate or expert player probably should not.
My reasoning is merely that beginner players fail to appreciate the importance of building up an early lead. Being able to see how it impacts the opposing strategy to know they are already 1 Province behind can be instructive.
More importantly, buying a Province early is deliberately sacrificing that Action Card purchase for VP. Getting out of the habit of buying Action Cards is a good step for a beginner.
Developing the instinct to snatch up Provinces when you can it is a good instinct to have. A more refined player can figure out when not to make that mistake later.
