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Lines J. Hutter
Germany
Munich
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After a failed attack (no skull) against a Stealer I often asked myself wether to use a support token to re-roll the attack or save it to use it when defending against the Stealers counter-attack.

I did some calculations and came up with with the following figures.

Chances to survive with a regular Marine (no special abilities) when using a support token to re-roll a missed shot:

1 Genestealer: 83%
2 Genestealer: 58%
3 Genestealer: 42%
4 Genestealer: 25%
5 Genestealer: 08%

Chances to survive with a regular Marine (no special abilities) when saving the support token to re-roll a defense roll in Stealer attack phase:

1 Genestealer: 89%
2 Genestealer: 75%
3 Genestealer: 56%
4 Genestealer: 31%
5 Genestealer: 00%

So the definate answer is:
Save your re-rolls for the stealer attack phase!
Except if you´re facing 5 stealers (for obvious reasons)!

DakkaDakka,

Lines
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Christian Skupin
Germany
Hamm
NRW
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I would reroll a flamer 0 every time.
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Cracky McCracken
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Ohio
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i love stats.
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Christian Skupin
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Hamm
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Cracky wrote:
i love stats.


I don't need 'em numbers, I need more guns!
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Lines J. Hutter
Germany
Munich
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well, I love statistics, but sometimes they suck:

I used Claudios special ability 5 times now and 4 times rolled a 0 angry
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Hunter E
United States
Kirkland
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Not quite so straightforward a comparison; sure, with one GS it's an 83% versus an 89% chance of surviving, but it's also an 83% chance of surviving with one fewer GS to deal with next time around versus 89% chance of surviving and having to worry about that GS next time. As close as the numbers are at some of those points (1, 4) this consideration might flip the optimum choice...
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Lines J. Hutter
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Good point, Hunter.

Although I have to correct you in one point.
From the 83% it´s only 50% surviving with one fewer Stealer.
The other 33% you survive but didn´t manage to kill it.
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Hunter E
United States
Kirkland
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Aye, true, but still.
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Bill
United States
Orlando
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Lines42 wrote:
well, I love statistics, but sometimes they suck:

I used Claudios special ability 5 times now and 4 times rolled a 0 angry


Perhaps Claudios' faith is in question. The Inquisition has concerns he's not trying hard enough.


That or you have defective die.
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Jay Duval
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Of course this is assuming that you have a choice, since a marine can only attack every other turn and genestealers both spawn and attack every turn it is imperative that the marines make at least one kill every turn he gets to attack. If you miss with a marine and don't use the support token to attack again the odds that marine is going to be killed is multiplied expenentially if another genestealer is spawned in a swarm that is attacking him. Also if you figure in the chances that the genestealers will flank him before he gets to attack and the fact that the more stealers in a swarm the more likely they are to flank him in that turn I say your statistics are way off.

You need to kill as many stealers as you can, a miss by a marine that is ignored can ultimately lead to the demise of the entire team. A save on a defense will only save the marine in question. It is imperative that every marine who is able kills at least one genestealer in a swarm per turn. So support tokens should be used offensively when they are available.
Attack oppurtunities for the space marines are far more important then the life of any one marine. Of course there are acceptions to this like marines with special abilities that tip the odds in the marine players favor but mere statistics cannot calculate the best choices in those cases.
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Lazarus Darkeyes
United States
Playa del Rey
California
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I also love stats and I thought I'd expand your initial point a little:

Odds of survival w/ unfettered use of all support tokens for a regular frontal GS attack (no special powers factored):

0 GS cannot kill, 5 will always kill

1 GS attacking
support--survival odds
0--66.67%
1--88.8889%
2--96.2963%
3--98.7654%
4--99.5885%
5--99.8628%
6--99.9543%
7--99.9848%
8--99.9949%
9--99.9983%
10--99.9994%
11--99.9998%
12--99.9999%

2 GS attacking
support--survival odds
0--50.0000%
1--75.0000%
2--87.5000%
3--93.7500%
4--96.8750%
5--98.4375%
6--99.2188%
7--99.6094%
8--99.8047%
9--99.9023%
10--99.9512%
11--99.9756%
12--99.9878%

3 GS attacking
support--survival odds
0--33.3333%
1--55.5556%
2--70.3704%
3--80.2469%
4--86.8313%
5--91.2209%
6--94.1472%
7--96.0982%
8--97.3988%
9--98.2658%
10--98.8439%
11--99.2293%
12--99.4862%

4 GS attacking
support--survival odds
0--16.6667%
1--30.5556%
2--42.1296%
3--51.7747%
4--59.8122%
5--66.5102%
6--72.0918%
7--76.7432%
8--80.6193%
9--83.8494%
10--86.5412%
11--88.7843%
12--90.6536%
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