Essen 2012: Ranking Tracker
Jeff Clark
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Continuing in the tradition of previous year's ranking trackers, I have decided to make one myself. It hopes to shed some light on the question:

Which Essen rating system does the best job of predicting future success of a particular game?

I have therefore selected a subset of all Essen games, and will track them over the course of the next year, to see if one particular source does a better job than another in predicting a games eventual rank.

Games were chosen from:

1.) BGG's own Geekbuzz system - taking the top 100 games as rated by users at the fair itself.
2.) Fairplay's final ratings of Essen games
3.) The pre-Essen "Essen Geek Mini" list, found at http://essengeek.dssr.ch/index.php

This list is intended to track games newly released at (or just before) the fair, so games published earlier shouldn't be here. If I've missed some, send me a PM.

I'm happy to add other games from the Essen fair -if- they end up ranking higher than any of these games on the overall BGG rankings, as it would help point out "undiscovered" games that went on to do well. If you're aware of any of these, send me a PM and I'll add them.
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1. Board Game: Terra Mystica [Average Rating:8.17 Overall Rank:14]
Board Game: Terra Mystica
Jeff Clark
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Geekbuzz rank: 15
Fairplay rank: 2
Essen Geek Mini rank: 10

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
23 Oct / n/a / 2704 / 16
24 Oct / n/a / 2334 / 14
25 Oct / 8.25 / 2080 / 11
26 Oct / 8.24 / 1955 / 10
29 Oct / 8.16 / 1536 / 8
10 Nov / 8.11 / 788 / 3
24 Nov / 8.20 / 384 / 2
1 Dec [Average Rating:8.25 Overall Rank:284] 2
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2. Board Game: Tzolk'in: The Mayan Calendar [Average Rating:7.91 Overall Rank:39]
Board Game: Tzolk'in: The Mayan Calendar
Jeff Clark
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Geekbuzz rank: 2
Fairplay rank: 7
Essen Geek Mini rank: 1

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
23 Oct / n/a / 2058 / 8
24 Oct / n/a / 1577 / 6
25 Oct / 8.32 / 1357 / 4
26 Oct / 8.27 / 1199 / 2
29 Oct / 8.26 / 887 / 1
10 Nov / 8.16 / 386 / 1
24 Nov / 8.13 / 237 / 1
1 Dec / [Average Rating:8.11 Overall Rank:203] / 1
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3. Board Game: Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island [Average Rating:7.88 Overall Rank:46]
Board Game: Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island
Jeff Clark
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Geekbuzz rank: 11
Fairplay rank: n/a
Essen Geek Mini rank: 7

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
24 Oct / n/a / 3322 / 27
25 Oct / 8.16 / 3026 / 24
26 Oct / 8.18 / 2750 / 22
29 Oct / 8.24 / 2209 / 19
10 Nov / 8.18 / 1075 / 8
24 Nov / 8.16 / 649 / 4
1 Dec [Average Rating:8.16 Overall Rank:565] 5
2 Dec [Average Rating:8.16 Overall Rank:504] 3
10 Dec [Average Rating:8.14 Overall Rank:440] 4
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4. Board Game: Keyflower [Average Rating:7.83 Overall Rank:51]
Board Game: Keyflower
Jeff Clark
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Geekbuzz rank: 49
Fairplay rank: 1
Essen Geek Mini rank: 14

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
24 Oct / n/a / 3023 / 22
25 Oct / 8.33 / 2631 / 20
26 Oct / 8.21 / 2576 / 20
29 Oct / 8.17 / 2219 / 20
10 Nov / 8.17 / 1224 / 12
24 Nov / 8.09 / 687 / 6
1 Dec [Average Rating:8.08 Overall Rank:547] 4
2 Dec [Average Rating:8.08 Overall Rank:540] 5
3 Dec [Average Rating:8.09 Overall Rank:525] 4
10 Dec [Average Rating:8.09 Overall Rank:425] 3
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5. Board Game: Kemet [Average Rating:7.73 Overall Rank:87]
Board Game: Kemet
Jeff Clark
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Geekbuzz rank: 65
Fairplay rank: n/a
Essen Geek Mini rank: n/a

10 Nov / 7.96 / 3296 / 45
24 Nov / 7.96 / 2722 / 43
1 Dec [Average Rating:7.85 Overall Rank:2621] 44
10 Dec [Average Rating:7.90 Overall Rank:2464] 42
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6. Board Game: Suburbia [Average Rating:7.54 Overall Rank:123]
Board Game: Suburbia
Jeff Clark
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Microbadge: I go to London on BoardMicrobadge: Dungeon Lords fanMicrobadge: Mage Knight Board Game fanMicrobadge: RainbowMicrobadge: Essen attendee
Geekbuzz rank: 9
Fairplay rank: n/a
Essen Geek Mini rank: 6

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
23 Oct / n/a / 1673 / 5
24 Oct / n/a / 1490 / 4
25 Oct / 8.02 / 1413 / 5
26 Oct / 8.03 / 1292 / 4
29 Oct / 8.01 / 1115 / 3
10 Nov / 7.76 / 733 / 2
24 Nov / 7.69 / 569 / 3
1 Dec [Average Rating:7.65 Overall Rank:539] 3
2 Dec [Average Rating:7.65 Overall Rank:529] 4
3 Dec [Average Rating:7.65 Overall Rank:529] 5
19 jan [Average Rating:7.62 Overall Rank:380] 7
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7. Board Game: Love Letter [Average Rating:7.24 Overall Rank:253]
Board Game: Love Letter
Jeff Clark
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Geekbuzz rank: 28
Fairplay rank: n/a
Essen Geek Mini rank: 16

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
23 Oct n/a / 2034 / 7
24 Oct n/a / 1862 / 8
25 Oct / 7.21 / 1828 / 7
26 Oct / 7.28 / 1688 / 7
29 Oct / 7.25 / 1374 / 7
10 Nov / 7.25 / 949 / 5
24 Nov / 7.31 / 700 / 7
1 Dec [Average Rating:7.32 Overall Rank:634] 7
19 Jan [Average Rating:7.38 Overall Rank:330] 6
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8. Board Game: Clash of Cultures [Average Rating:7.63 Overall Rank:259]
Board Game: Clash of Cultures
Jeff Clark
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Microbadge: I go to London on BoardMicrobadge: Dungeon Lords fanMicrobadge: Mage Knight Board Game fanMicrobadge: RainbowMicrobadge: Essen attendee
Geekbuzz rank: 39
Fairplay rank: n/a
Essen Geek Mini rank: 12

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
23 Oct / n/a / 3455 / 23
24 Oct / n/a / 3131 / 23
25 Oct / 7.93 / 2949 / 23
26 Oct / 7.85 / 2867 / 23
29 Oct / 7.68 / 2642 / 23
10 Nov / 7.82 / 1730 / 20
24 Nov / 7.83 / 1432 / 19
1 Dec [Average Rating:7.73 Overall Rank:1369] 19
19 Jan [Average Rating:7.98 Overall Rank:537] 12
27 Jan [Average Rating:7.95 Overall Rank:482] 10
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9. Board Game: The Great Zimbabwe [Average Rating:7.78 Overall Rank:327]
Board Game: The Great Zimbabwe
Jeff Clark
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Geekbuzz rank: 92
Fairplay rank: n/a
Essen Geek Mini rank: 26

29 Oct / 7.65 / 2862 / 28
10 Nov / 7.71 / 1506 / 16
24 Nov / 7.65 / 1083 / 16
1 Dec [Average Rating:7.62 Overall Rank:998] 16
4 Dec [Average Rating:7.63 Overall Rank:955] 17
19 Jan [Average Rating:7.66 Overall Rank:765] 18
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10. Board Game: Spartacus: A Game of Blood & Treachery [Average Rating:7.46 Overall Rank:328]
Board Game: Spartacus: A Game of Blood & Treachery
Jeff Clark
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Microbadge: I go to London on BoardMicrobadge: Dungeon Lords fanMicrobadge: Mage Knight Board Game fanMicrobadge: RainbowMicrobadge: Essen attendee
Geekbuzz rank: 33
Fairplay rank: n/a
Essen Geek Mini rank: n/a

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
23 Oct / n/a / 2113 / 9
24 Oct / n/a / 1998 / 9
25 Oct / 8.16 / 1982 / 9
26 Oct / 8.19 / 1946 / 9
29 Oct / 8.08 / 1746 / 9
10 Nov / 7.89 / 1218 / 11
24 Nov / 7.85 / 958 / 12
1 Dec [Average Rating:7.83 Overall Rank:908] 13
2 Dec [Average Rating:7.83 Overall Rank:846] 11
3 Dec [Average Rating:7.83 Overall Rank:830] 10
10 Dec [Average Rating:7.81 Overall Rank:800] 13
19 Jan [Average Rating:7.85 Overall Rank:529] 11
27 Jan [Average Rating:7.83 Overall Rank:502] 13
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11. Board Game: Archipelago [Average Rating:7.36 Overall Rank:347]
 
Jeff Clark
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Microbadge: I go to London on BoardMicrobadge: Dungeon Lords fanMicrobadge: Mage Knight Board Game fanMicrobadge: RainbowMicrobadge: Essen attendee
Geekbuzz rank: 31
Fairplay rank: n/a
Essen Geek Mini rank: 8

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
23 Oct / n/a / 2178 / 10
24 Oct / n/a / 2082 / 10
25 Oct / 7.81 / 2023 / 10
26 Oct / 7.77 / 1992 / 11
29 Oct / 7.81 / 1842 / 13
10 Nov / 7.71 / 1530 / 17
24 Nov / 7.72 / 1089 / 17
1 Dec [Average Rating:7.66 Overall Rank:1000] 17
3 Dec [Average Rating:7.66 Overall Rank:904] 15
6 Dec [Average Rating:7.66 Overall Rank:830] 13
10 Dec [Average Rating:7.62 Overall Rank:804] 14
19 Jan [Average Rating:7.50 Overall Rank:541] 13
27 Jan [Average Rating:7.49 Overall Rank:516] 14
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12. Board Game: Legends of Andor [Average Rating:7.23 Overall Rank:361] [Average Rating:7.23 Unranked]
Board Game: Legends of Andor
Jeff Clark
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Microbadge: I go to London on BoardMicrobadge: Dungeon Lords fanMicrobadge: Mage Knight Board Game fanMicrobadge: RainbowMicrobadge: Essen attendee
Geekbuzz rank: 44
Fairplay rank: 8
Essen Geek Mini rank: 35

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
23 Oct / n/a / 1556 / 4
24 Oct / n/a / 1497 / 5
25 Oct / 7.80 / 1454 / 6
26 Oct / 7.77 / 1442 / 6
29 Oct / 7.72 / 1365 / 6
10 Nov / 7.67 / 1093 / 9
24 Nov / 7.68 / 950 / 11
1 Dec [Average Rating:7.68 Overall Rank:887] 11
2 Dec [Average Rating:7.67 Overall Rank:839] 9
10 Dec [Average Rating:7.66 Overall Rank:786]10
19 jan [Average Rating:7.62 Overall Rank:499] 9
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13. Board Game: Ginkgopolis [Average Rating:7.43 Overall Rank:378]
Board Game: Ginkgopolis
Jeff Clark
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Microbadge: I go to London on BoardMicrobadge: Dungeon Lords fanMicrobadge: Mage Knight Board Game fanMicrobadge: RainbowMicrobadge: Essen attendee
Geekbuzz rank: 12
Fairplay rank: 3
Essen Geek Mini rank: 13

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
23 Oct / n/a / 3164 / 20
24 Oct / n/a / 2812 / 19
25 Oct / 7.98 / 2524 / 17
26 Oct / 7.98 / 2360 / 16
29 Oct / 7.86 / 2075 / 15
10 Nov / 7.63 / 1449 / 15
24 Nov / 7.53 / 1064 / 14
1 Dec [Average Rating:7.59 Overall Rank:920] 14
3 Dec [Average Rating:7.59 Overall Rank:888] 13
6 Dec [Average Rating:7.59 Overall Rank:846] 15
19 jan [Average Rating:7.58 Overall Rank:513] 10
27 Jan [Average Rating:7.56 Overall Rank:486] 11
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14. Board Game: Snowdonia [Average Rating:7.41 Overall Rank:432]
Board Game: Snowdonia
Jeff Clark
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Microbadge: I go to London on BoardMicrobadge: Dungeon Lords fanMicrobadge: Mage Knight Board Game fanMicrobadge: RainbowMicrobadge: Essen attendee
Geekbuzz rank: 25
Fairplay rank: 11
Essen Geek Mini rank: 5

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
23 Oct / n/a / 2680 / 15
24 Oct / n/a / 2517 / 16
25 Oct / 7.72 / 2384 / 15
26 Oct / 7.76 / 2179 / 13
29 Oct / 7.80 / 1792 / 10
10 Nov / 7.58 / 1270 / 13
24 Nov / 7.42 / 1007 / 13
1 Dec [Average Rating:7.47 Overall Rank:882] 10
3 Dec [Average Rating:7.45 Overall Rank:847] 12
4 Dec [Average Rating:7.47 Overall Rank:823] 11
19 Jan [Average Rating:7.47 Overall Rank:597] 15
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15. Board Game: Trains [Average Rating:7.19 Overall Rank:455] [Average Rating:7.19 Unranked]
Board Game: Trains
Jeff Clark
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Microbadge: I go to London on BoardMicrobadge: Dungeon Lords fanMicrobadge: Mage Knight Board Game fanMicrobadge: RainbowMicrobadge: Essen attendee
Geekbuzz rank: n/a
Fairplay rank: n/a
Essen Geek Mini rank: 27

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
23 Oct / n/a / 2392 / 12
24 Oct / n/a / 2333 / 13
25 Oct / 7.76 / 2333 / 13
26 Oct / 7.73 / 2334 / 15
29 Oct / 7.76 / 2139 / 17
10 Nov / 7.63 / 1726 / 19
24 Nov / 7.53 / 1520 / 20
1 Dec [Average Rating:7.50 Overall Rank:1505] 20
19 Jan [Average Rating:7.52 Overall Rank:1302] 26
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16. Board Game: Coup [Average Rating:7.02 Overall Rank:467]
Board Game: Coup
Jeff Clark
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Geekbuzz rank: 42
Fairplay rank: n/a
Essen Geek Mini rank: n/a

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
24 Oct / n/a / 3469 / 28
25 Oct / 7.79 / 3342 / 28
26 Oct / 7.67 / 3206 / 28
29 Oct / 7.65 / 2653 / 24
10 Nov / 7.18 / 2411 / 29
24 Nov / 7.01 / 1965 / 27
1 Dec [Average Rating:7.03 Overall Rank:1781] 25
6 Dec [Average Rating:7.01 Overall Rank:1672] 23
10 Dec [Average Rating:7.07 Overall Rank:1543] 21
19 Jan [Average Rating:7.08 Overall Rank:1149] 20
 
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17. Board Game: Myrmes [Average Rating:7.29 Overall Rank:486]
Board Game: Myrmes
Jeff Clark
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Geekbuzz rank: 3
Fairplay rank: n/a
Essen Geek Mini rank: 3

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List

23 Oct / n/a / 2556 / 14
24 Oct / n/a / 2296 / 12
25 Oct / 8.05 / 2115 / 12
26 Oct / 8.00 / 2072 / 12
29 Oct / 7.94 / 1819 / 11
10 Nov / 7.90 / 1177 / 10
24 Nov / 7.87 / 835 / 8
1 Dec [Average Rating:7.82 Overall Rank:780] 8
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18. Board Game: Tokaido [Average Rating:7.03 Overall Rank:499]
Board Game: Tokaido
Jeff Clark
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Geekbuzz rank: 7
Fairplay rank: n/a
Essen Geek Mini rank: 9

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
23 Oct / n/a / 4288 / 31
24 Oct / n/a / 3811 / 33
25 Oct / 6.73 / 3584 / 32
26 Oct / 6.75 / 3300 / 31
29 Oct / 6.77 / 2844 / 27
10 Nov / 6.63 / 2521 / 34
24 Nov / 6.64 / 2151 / 33
1 Dec [Average Rating:6.61 Overall Rank:2118] 33
10 Dec [Average Rating:6.54 Overall Rank:2156] 37
 
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19. Board Game: Escape: The Curse of the Temple [Average Rating:7.01 Overall Rank:502]
Board Game: Escape: The Curse of the Temple
Jeff Clark
United Kingdom
London
London
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Geekbuzz rank: 1
Fairplay rank: n/a
Essen Geek Mini rank: 33

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
23 Oct / n/a /1020 / 1
24 Oct / n/a / 990 / 1
25 Oct / 7.33 / 970 / 1
26 Oct / 7.33 / 947 / 1
29 Oct / 7.27 / 895 / 2
10 Nov / 7.13 / 804 / 4
24 Nov / 7.15 / 652 / 5
1 Dec [Average Rating:7.15 Overall Rank:606] 6
19 Jan [Average Rating:7.34 Overall Rank:294] 5
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20. Board Game: Among the Stars [Average Rating:7.12 Overall Rank:545] [Average Rating:7.12 Unranked]
Board Game: Among the Stars
Jeff Clark
United Kingdom
London
London
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Geekbuzz rank: 18
Fairplay rank: n/a
Essen Geek Mini rank: 4

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
23 Oct / n/a / 3162 / 19
24 Oct / n/a / 2768 / 18
25 Oct / 7.26 / 2703 / 21
26 Oct / 7.30 / 2598 / 21
29 Oct / 7.33 / 2318 / 22
10 Nov / 7.15 / 1854 / 22
24 Nov / 7.02 / 1692 / 21
1 Dec [Average Rating:6.97 Overall Rank:1692] 21
6 Dec [Average Rating:6.94 Overall Rank:1655] 22
10 Dec [Average Rating:6.93 Overall Rank:1658] 24
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21. Board Game: Yedo [Average Rating:7.40 Overall Rank:571]
Board Game: Yedo
Jeff Clark
United Kingdom
London
London
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Microbadge: I go to London on BoardMicrobadge: Dungeon Lords fanMicrobadge: Mage Knight Board Game fanMicrobadge: RainbowMicrobadge: Essen attendee
Geekbuzz rank: 66
Fairplay rank: n/a
Essen Geek Mini rank: n/a

24 Nov / 7.47 / 3966 / 59
1 Dec [Average Rating:7.47 Overall Rank:3677] 56
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22. Board Game: The Palaces of Carrara [Average Rating:7.21 Overall Rank:639]
Board Game: The Palaces of Carrara
Jeff Clark
United Kingdom
London
London
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Geekbuzz rank: 37
Fairplay rank: 9
Essen Geek Mini rank: n/a

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
24 Oct / n/a / 4428 / 37
25 Oct / 7.03 / 4211 / 40
26 Oct / 7.13 / 3847 / 38
29 Oct / 7.05 / 3727 / 43
10 Nov / 7.23 / 2348 / 28
24 Nov / 7.16 / 1857 / 25
1 Dec [Average Rating:7.21 Overall Rank:1720] 23
6 Dec [Average Rating:7.19 Overall Rank:1683] 24
10 Dec [Average Rating:7.20 Overall Rank:1634] 23
19 Jan [Average Rating:7.18 Overall Rank:1294] 25
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23. Board Game: CO₂ [Average Rating:7.19 Overall Rank:684]
Board Game: CO₂
Jeff Clark
United Kingdom
London
London
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Microbadge: I go to London on BoardMicrobadge: Dungeon Lords fanMicrobadge: Mage Knight Board Game fanMicrobadge: RainbowMicrobadge: Essen attendee
Geekbuzz rank: 21
Fairplay rank: n/a
Essen Geek Mini rank: 2

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
23 Oct / n/a / 2723 / 17
24 Oct / n/a / 2548 / 17
25 Oct / 7.66 / 2563 / 18
26 Oct / 7.68 / 2458 / 19
29 Oct / 7.68 / 1953 / 14
10 Nov / 7.68 / 1389 / 14
24 Nov / 7.55 / 1080 / 15
1 Dec [Average Rating:7.58 Overall Rank:928] 15
4 Dec [Average Rating:7.63 Overall Rank:885] 14
10 Dec [Average Rating:7.66 Overall Rank:773] 9
19 Jan [Average Rating:7.62 Overall Rank:543] 14
27 Jan [Average Rating:7.62 Overall Rank:501] 12
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24. Board Game: Smash Up [Average Rating:6.78 Overall Rank:796] [Average Rating:6.78 Unranked]
Board Game: Smash Up
Jeff Clark
United Kingdom
London
London
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Microbadge: I go to London on BoardMicrobadge: Dungeon Lords fanMicrobadge: Mage Knight Board Game fanMicrobadge: RainbowMicrobadge: Essen attendee
Geekbuzz rank: 41
Fairplay rank: n/a
Essen Geek Mini rank: n/a

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
23 Oct / n/a / 1284 / 2
24 Oct / n/a / 1237 / 2
25 Oct / 6.91 / 1225 / 2
26 Oct / 6.90 / 1210 / 3
29 Oct / 6.91 / 1132 / 4
10 Nov / 6.90 / 977 / 6
24 Nov / 6.89 / 916 / 9
1 Dec [Average Rating:6.91 Overall Rank:881] 9
2 Dec [Average Rating:6.90 Overall Rank:845] 10
3 Dec [Average Rating:6.90 Overall Rank:843] 11
4 Dec [Average Rating:6.90 Overall Rank:841] 12
19 Jan [Average Rating:6.97 Overall Rank:640] 16
 
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25. Board Game: Fleet [Average Rating:6.94 Overall Rank:855]
Board Game: Fleet
Jeff Clark
United Kingdom
London
London
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Microbadge: I go to London on BoardMicrobadge: Dungeon Lords fanMicrobadge: Mage Knight Board Game fanMicrobadge: RainbowMicrobadge: Essen attendee
Geekbuzz rank: 112
Fairplay rank: n/a
Essen Geek Mini rank: 21

Date / Avg Rating / Overall Rank / Rank on List
23 Oct / n/a / 1372 / 3
24 Oct / n/a / 1355 / 3
25 Oct / 7.43 / 1339 / 3
26 Oct / 7.40 / 1305 / 5
29 Oct / 7.40 / 1202 / 5
10 Nov / 7.37 / 988 / 7
24 Nov / 7.30 / 919 / 10
1 Dec [Average Rating:7.29 Overall Rank:906] 12
3 Dec [Average Rating:7.26 Overall Rank:898] 14
4 Dec [Average Rating:7.26 Overall Rank:898] 16
19 Jan [Average Rating:7.20 Overall Rank:739] 17
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