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Subject: Common strategy mistakes rss

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Greg Jones
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These are some things I've observed a lot of players do. A lot of them are minor, but on hard difficulty level, minor mistakes can quickly add up to be costly.

Undervaluing eradication

Admittedly, I've only seen one person espouse the extreme version of this view. They insisted that rather than eradicate a disease, we treat cubes in a city that had three cubes to prevent an outbreak, even though the card for that city was in the discard pile.

Eradication is very valuable, and is worth risking one outbreak, or even worth one certain outbreak.

Overvaluing eradication

On the other hand, eradication is an exciting, challenging achievement. It can be tempting to go for it, even though it's not the best thing for winning the game. You might eradicate a disease, only to have another area turn disastrous when an epidemic comes in a bad spot where a lot of nearby cities have two cubes.

The difference depends a lot on how far you are through the game. Eradicating early means you'll save a lot of actions you don't have to spend on treating that disease over the rest of the game. However, if there are only two epidemics left, and no city of that color has more than one cube, it's unlikely that color will ever cause you a problem again, even if you never treat it.

Thinking your role is your job

I've seen people who play the Operations Expert, and they immediately start off the first turn walking to Sao Paolo or Madrid or Tokyo and placing a lab. They continue to just walk around the board and place labs, at least until the board is nicely peppered with them. That's very helpful, but it's not the only thing you can be doing, and sometimes something else is more urgent. In fact on hard difficulty, something is almost always more urgent. Placing labs becomes a mostly tactical activity, with the lab having at least one specific use intended before the Operations Expert's next turn. I have even asked people to go treat cubes in a critical area, to have them reply that they're the Operations Expert - their job is building labs, not treating cubes.

Your role is not a job, it's an ability. Sometimes, your special ability is the best ability, but sometimes, one of the many abilities all the players share is the best move. People have to do different jobs.

The Scientist is usually the one to collect cards, but if he has one and someone else has four, perhaps he should give one instead.

The Researcher usually gives cards, but sometimes he uses them to make a lab or fly somewhere.

The Dispatcher often moves other people around, but if a city is about to outbreak badly on his turn, probably he should get himself there and treat it.

The thinking is at least partially correct for the Medic. The Medic is so powerful, that when possible, he should be positioned to treat two cities with as many cubes as possible, and should use cards as necessary to fly to treat if he's not near cities with a lot of cubes. However, if it happens that the Medic draws nearly enough cards to get a cure, he should still probably be the one to do the cure.

Treat before you leave

Pop quiz: If you are sitting on a city with two cubes, and two spaces away is a city with three cubes, what do you do?

A lot of people notice the danger and impulsively walk to the city with three cubes and treat two. That's not usually optimal. Instead you should treat one, walk to the other city, and treat one. Either way, you end up with one city with two cubes and one city with one cube. The difference is which city you are in. The right way, you end in the city with two cubes. That's better, because on your next turn, you might have an opportunity to treat one more. On the other hand, if you need to treat one more in the city you left, you will have to spend actions to return.

Leaving two cubes in a city might not seem so bad, but two cubes becomes three, and then an outbreak. An exception is if you have the Medic in the game. Then, it can make sense to leave two cubes, so the Medic can come clean both, or even clean three after another comes.

The rule is even more true when you fly between the cities. In that case, it might cost a lot of actions to get back. On the other hand, if the city you leave has a lab in it, you can sometimes ignore this rule. It is usually fairly easy to return to a city that has a lab, if you have an Operations Expert or the board otherwise has a decent lab network.

In general, some players make the mistake of doing the most important thing on their turn first. Instead you should plan all four of your actions before you take your first one.

Walking as your last action

This is more of a newbie mistake. Sometimes they will walk to a city with three cubes, planning to treat it next turn. On hard difficulty, it is likely that an epidemic will come before your next turn, so someone else will have to come treat the city before then anyway. Instead, you should stay flexible. End near to a city with three cubes.

An exception is the Medic. The Medic should often start on a city with three cubes, so they can treat that one and another highly infected one. Even if the epidemic comes and the city outbreaks, or even if another player comes and treats one cube, there is value in the Medic treating two or three cubes in one action.

Role Specific

Dispatcher

Inexperienced Dispatchers commonly make a move that uses extra actions to achieve the same effect. Suppose another player is in London, and the Dispatcher wants to join them in Paris. The mistake is for the Dispatcher to jump to the player in London, then move both players to Paris, using three actions. Instead the Dispatcher can move the other player to Paris, then jump to him. That uses two actions. It's a simple thing, but some people miss it.

Even if you hadn't particularly intended to meet the other pawn somewhere, if you're using their pawn as a path to get somewhere, consider whether it's better for them to stay where they are or move to some other point on your path. It will cost the same number of actions either way. Sometimes they're best right where they are, other times it's better that they also end up where you're going.

Researcher

At the start of a game with a Researcher, when everybody's in Atlanta, a lot of people look around and see who has the most cards of each color. Then they want those people to take the matching color cards from the Researcher (or for the Researcher to give them).

Where it can go wrong is if they're nowhere close to having five of that color. It's possible they go without drawing enough of that color for a long time, and have to discard cards. They might even get close to a different cure first, and have to discard the cards the Researcher passed them. That wastes cards and actions.

When the Dispatcher is also in the game, there's a much better option. The Dispatcher can always get any two pawns together with one action at any time. Just wait until the combined total cards for the Researcher and the other player are enough to cure, and then get them together. If the Dispatcher's turn is between the other player and the Researcher, however, you might want to speculatively get them together when the total is close, because the Researcher might draw the right color. If you wait, then it takes one more round to cure the disease.

If the Dispatcher is not in the game, then sometimes passing cards the first round in Atlanta is a good idea. If it gets you to one away from the cure, it probably is. Also, it's best if the player still has enough actions left to heal some cubes.

Special Cards

Resilient Population

When they have the opportunity to use Resilient Population, some people look for the city with three cubes on the board that has the most connections. I am more likely to pick the one has the least. I look for the one that's most remote, hardest to get to, and not near anything else we want to go to. A lot of actions would be wasted going there, perhaps more than once over the course of the game. My favorite city for Resilient Population is Santiago, which has the fewest connections of any city on the board.

If you choose a city with a lot of connections, chances are there are adjacent infected cities. You will be there treating them at some point, and it will cost only a few more actions to treat the adjacent city. In addition, even if you make one of those cities resilient, you'll want to treat cubes in it. Otherwise there is the risk of a chain reaction if an adjacent city outbreaks.

A different type of use of Resilient Population is favored by some very good players. If two or more adjacent cities already have a lot of cubes, they might make one resilient to reduce the chances or number of chain reaction outbreaks. This is really an emergency measure, if you're not sure you can reach those cities in time to treat them to prevent the chain reaction. It also can be wise near the end of the game, when the considerations of having to return several times to a remote city don't apply.

Playing special cards too early

Some players play Resilient Population as soon as they draw it or as soon as they draw the infection card for a city they'd like to use it on. It never needs to be played before the epidemic strikes, unless you need to make room in your hand. The rules imply that you can play it after you draw the epidemic card, but before you reshuffle the discards. That gives you the maximum options for what city to target.

Some players play Government Grant as soon as they draw it, to place a lab in a region and a city they think it's strategically valuable in. Government Grant does need to be played until you plan to use some player action that makes use of the lab: either curing a disease or shuttling to some other lab. You can have in mind where you'd like to play it, but play it at the last minute. If you reevaluate your decision before that based on new information, you might avoid a mistake.

Don't Forecast unless the next player (or two) has some way to go treat some critical city. If the infection rate is at 3 or 4, and you play Forecast at the end of a player's turn before their infection phase, all the cubes will come by the end of the next player's turn. So unless that player can do something about it, rearranging the cards doesn't usually do much good. If the infection rate is at 2, then two following players can make an impact.

The same goes for One Quiet Night. If the next player can't treat critical cubes, the infections will have the same impact before or after their turn.
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Great stuff. I would add "saving special cards for a rainy day." I see players pass up very timely and powerful uses of special cards because it helps the team stay ahead of the game, as opposed to bailing them out in a crisis. Often, if you make good use of them while you're doing well, you will never have the crisis you wish to save them for.
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Tom Lehmann
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A lot of good points.

You have a typo in your Government Grant paragraph (third from bottom) in the second sentence ("does" instead of "doesn't").

I somewhat disagree with your use of Resilient Population; the most remote city with fewest connections is often just best left alone to occasionally outbreak (especially if its card is not in the topmost section of the Infection deck). I look for hard-to-get-to cities that are connected to at least one other city that has been drawn. This will tend to reduce that remote area from a problem to a dull roar.

So, if Santiago has 3 cubes, Kinshasa has 1 cube, and Johannesburg has 3 cubes, I will argue for using it on Johannesburg. Removing it means that Kinshasa can be drawn twice before anything needs to be done in that area, while outbreaks in Santiago just aren't that big of a deal -- they each put only one extra yellow cube on the board.

Dispatcher players sometimes forget to "nudge" along other players' pawns, instead either making a "dramatic" move or doing nothing with a given pawn. Moving another player's pawn one space on the Dispatcher's turn will often enable that player to treat two cities, instead of one, on that player's next turn.
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Greg Jones
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Tom Lehmann wrote:
I somewhat disagree with your use of Resilient Population; the most remote city with fewest connections is often just best left alone to occasionally outbreak (especially if its card is not in the topmost section of the Infection deck).


I don't think you can really do that. If Santiago has 3 cubes at the beginning of the game, on hard difficulty, if you ignore it completely, it will likely outbreak six times. With that kind of baseline for outbreaks, you don't have a lot of room for error. Probably that's a little unrealistic. Maybe a less extreme scenario is that you get Santiago in the middle of the game. So it might contribute about three outbreaks. For me, that's about a typical number of outbreaks I have left when I win. Three extra might mean a loss.

If you can't Resilient Population Santiago, you have to deal with it sooner or later. Sooner is better than later. But not at all is better than sooner.
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Tom Lehmann
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I disagree, for two reasons:

First, at hard difficulty, epidemic cards come up so frequently (on average) that the infection cards typically do not completely cycle from the top of the infection deck between epidemics until the infection rate rises to 3 (third epidemic card) or 4 (fifth epidemic card).

Second, at hard difficulty, *if* you are going to lose, you typically lose to outbreak death or cube death, not card death (this varies some with the number of players). Therefore, if you win, you will often do so before the fifth or sixth epidemic card hits.

Given this, to say that an untreated Santiago at 3 cubes at the start of the game is going to likely outbreak 6 times over the course of the game is incorrect. It may outbreak 6 times, if it is in the top half of the top infection deck section after the first epidemic and all 6 epidemic cards are drawn before the game ends. It may outbreak only 1 time, if is in the bottom half of the top infection deck section after the first epidemic and players win before the sixth epidemic card is drawn. On average, it will outbreak 2-3 times before the end of the game.

Which brings me to the most common mistake I see experienced players making when playing at hard difficulty, namely, failing to distinguish between the cards that are cycling rapidly on the top of the infection deck (the ones you see between the first and second epidemic cards, plus the Infect step cards) and those that aren't and wasting too much time dealing with the latter group of infected cities.

Thus, I will typically not use Resilient Population until the *second* epidemic card is drawn, even if I have it when the first epidemic card is drawn. Once the second epidemic card is drawn, you have a much better sense of which infected cities are your real problems (the cities that cycled, plus later Infect step cities).

Note the caveat about where the prospective "hard to get to" city is located in the top section of the infection deck in my earlier comments above.
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Greg Jones
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Tom Lehmann wrote:
I disagree, for two reasons:

First, at hard difficulty, epidemic cards come up so frequently (on average) that the infection cards typically do not completely cycle from the top of the infection deck between epidemics until the infection rate rises to 3 (third epidemic card) or 4 (fifth epidemic card).


Not all the cities that come at the beginning of the game will cycle every epidemic, but the same cities more or less come every epidemic. Santiago might be one of them. The time between epidemics doesn't vary too much, so you draw some cities, then reshuffle them, then draw the same cities. Sometimes you don't draw them all. Sometimes you draw a few stragglers, and then a few of your usual suspects will fall out of rotation for a while.

Tom Lehmann wrote:
Second, at hard difficulty, *if* you are going to lose, you typically lose to outbreak death or cube death, not card death (this varies some with the number of players). Therefore, if you win, you will often do so before the fifth or sixth epidemic card hits.


In my experience, I rarely lose to running out of cards. However, I frequently push it right to the last round. Usually the 6th epidemic makes it out. Maybe only 5. If we win before the 5th epidemic, it's because of lucky card draws or a favorable set of roles for curing, e.g. including the Researcher and Scientist.

Tom Lehmann wrote:
Given this, to say that an untreated Santiago at 3 cubes at the start of the game is going to likely outbreak 6 times over the course of the game is incorrect. It may outbreak 6 times, if it is in the top half of the top infection deck section after the first epidemic and all 6 epidemic cards are drawn before the game ends. It may outbreak only 1 time, if is in the bottom half of the top infection deck section after the first epidemic and players win before the sixth epidemic card is drawn.


It might be an interesting tactic to let it be after the first epidemic, and see if it comes back. If not, don't worry about it. But if it comes back and outbreaks once, you should probably use Resilient Population. It will likely be back over and over again.

Tom Lehmann wrote:
On average, it will outbreak 2-3 times before the end of the game.


Average isn't very meaningful in this case when it's more likely one of two extremes. There is some chance it will actually outbreak 2-3 times, if it happens to stray out of the shuffled cities one epidemic, then back in the next, then out again, etc. Even 3 seems like too much to me to just ignore it.

Tom Lehmann wrote:
Thus, I will typically not use Resilient Population until the *second* epidemic card is drawn, even if I have it when the first epidemic card is drawn. Once the second epidemic card is drawn, you have a much better sense of which infected cities are your real problems (the cities that cycled, plus later Infect step cities).


That seems pretty smart. I should try it. I guess on some cities you get a sort of free random Resilient Population, when they simply get buried deep in the deck. But the subject is changing a bit from what type of city to play Resilient Population on to when to play it.
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James Goodfriend
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Tom Lehmann wrote:
I disagree, for two reasons:

Thus, I will typically not use Resilient Population until the *second* epidemic card is drawn, even if I have it when the first epidemic card is drawn. Once the second epidemic card is drawn, you have a much better sense of which infected cities are your real problems (the cities that cycled, plus later Infect step cities).


Ohhh...a big door just opened up in my brain.
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Maury Richards
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morningstar wrote:

Researcher

If the Dispatcher is not in the game, then sometimes passing cards the first round in Atlanta is a good idea. If it gets you to one away from the cure, it probably is. Also, it's best if the player still has enough actions left to heal some cubes.


I don't understand what is meant by this. I thought you can only trade cards if you are in the same city and if the card you trade is the card for that city. So at the start of the game without the Dispatcher, isn't the only card that can get passed Atlanta?
 
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howlingfang wrote:
morningstar wrote:

Researcher

If the Dispatcher is not in the game, then sometimes passing cards the first round in Atlanta is a good idea. If it gets you to one away from the cure, it probably is. Also, it's best if the player still has enough actions left to heal some cubes.


I don't understand what is meant by this. I thought you can only trade cards if you are in the same city and if the card you trade is the card for that city. So at the start of the game without the Dispatcher, isn't the only card that can get passed Atlanta?


The researcher lets you override the card-city matching restriction. For one action, the researcher may give a card from a player occupying the same space. It is common for the researcher to begin the game by giving away all of his/her cards to the other players before the team leaves Atlanta. The post you're quoting says that this is only a good idea if the team does not have the dispatcher (which can easily bring the researcher to any other player once it's clear who is working on which cures).

Make sense?
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JohnRayJr wrote:
For one action, the researcher may give or receive a any card from a player occupying the same space. It is common for the researcher to begin the game by giving away all of his/her cards to the other players before the team leaves Atlanta.


Not receive, only give to.
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UnknownParkerBrother wrote:
JohnRayJr wrote:
For one action, the researcher may give or receive a any card from a player occupying the same space. It is common for the researcher to begin the game by giving away all of his/her cards to the other players before the team leaves Atlanta.


Not receive, only give to.


Whoops, getting sleepy over here. Fixed.
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Chicago_Bob wrote:
Tom Lehmann wrote:
I disagree, for two reasons:

Thus, I will typically not use Resilient Population until the *second* epidemic card is drawn, even if I have it when the first epidemic card is drawn. Once the second epidemic card is drawn, you have a much better sense of which infected cities are your real problems (the cities that cycled, plus later Infect step cities).


Ohhh...a big door just opened up in my brain.

And that is what these threads are for.

Yesterday I had Santiago infected with 3 cubes at the start. When Santiago came back with an outbreak after the first epidemic I figured out the tactic the OP explains here to make Santiago resilient, thus saving me the trouble of going there to heal during the game.
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Jason Martin
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morningstar wrote:
If the Dispatcher is not in the game, then sometimes passing cards the first round in Atlanta is a good idea. If it gets you to one away from the cure, it probably is. Also, it's best if the player still has enough actions left to heal some cubes.



Um, so if the dispatcher is not in the game, you should pass cards? By that, I assume you mean they can pass Atlanta?
 
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Anjohl wrote:
morningstar wrote:
If the Dispatcher is not in the game, then sometimes passing cards the first round in Atlanta is a good idea. If it gets you to one away from the cure, it probably is. Also, it's best if the player still has enough actions left to heal some cubes.



Um, so if the dispatcher is not in the game, you should pass cards? By that, I assume you mean they can pass Atlanta?

Since I doubt the OP will be back soon, he was talking about the researcher there, which means that any card can be passed from the researcher to the other players at the beginning of the game.
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Nicolas Connault
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mag74b wrote:

Since I doubt the OP will be back soon, he was talking about the researcher there, which means that any card can be passed from the researcher to the other players at the beginning of the game.


This strategy is good, except that in a 4-player game, the researcher starts with only 2 cards... Should he pass his two cards and move to a spot where he expects other players will move, so he can pass his other 2 cards next turn?
 
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Greg Jones
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nicolasconnault wrote:
mag74b wrote:

Since I doubt the OP will be back soon, he was talking about the researcher there, which means that any card can be passed from the researcher to the other players at the beginning of the game.


This strategy is good, except that in a 4-player game, the researcher starts with only 2 cards... Should he pass his two cards and move to a spot where he expects other players will move, so he can pass his other 2 cards next turn?


Well my main point was that the Researcher should not feel the need to pass off all their cards. That's true even if the Dispatcher is not in the game, but especially if it is. The Researcher should only pass cards to someone who already has at least two or three of that color. Sometimes, maybe, that might mean the Researcher passes off both (or all) of their cards on their first turn.

But I also said the Researcher should try to treat a city with 3 cubes on their first turn (even on the easiest difficulty, the first epidemic can come any time). The Researcher might need to use a card to get to that city, although the players should try to coordinate to leave a city that can be reached without direct or charter flights for the Researcher and/or Scientist. That way they can keep their cards which are more valuable for getting cures. In any case, it is probably not possible for the Researcher to pass two cards and treat a cube in a city with 3 cubes, unless such a city is right next to Atlanta. Passing their only two cards should probably only be done if it gets a player to one card away from a cure or better.

What should the Researcher have in mind for their second turn? Nothing in particular. The situation can change pretty fast. Your role is not your job; the Researcher shouldn't be following people around trying to do nothing but pass cards. After a few rounds, people will have collected enough cards to see who has a chance to get a cure if they meet the Researcher. Then the Researcher and that player make an effort to rendezvous at a lab.
 
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