Recommend
 
 Thumb up
 Hide
4 Posts

Marvel Heroes» Forums » General

Subject: Threat Level Probability? rss

Your Tags: Add tags
Popular Tags: [View All]
fishhaid
United States
Downers Grove
Illinois
flag msg tools
Hi there, Face here!
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Anyone worked out the probability of the Threat Level rolls with and without dice boosting?

Played this game twice with my daughter recently and had a blast. She had the X-men and I was playing the Marvel Knights. Both games came down to the last turn with me sending Electra to handle a Level Three Headline. Both times Electra had miserable rolls, most notably, the last game where she had to roll 5 dice (due to Kingpin's increasing the threat level with his damn scheming) and got a trouble level of 7. The MK reduced it to 4 due to her crime rating and Daredevil in support. Then she had to roll 4 dice with her Ninjitsu to defeat the bad guy and got a two. Needless to say, she lost and I did too. BTW, my 14 year old daughter is really good....

But it did get me to wondering: per die, what is the average percent of hits with and without dice boosting for Threat Level rolls?

It's been over 30 years since I took statistics so I thought I'd leave it up to the experts!

Thanks.

 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
Rauli Kettunen
Finland
Oulu
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Don't know about the probabilities, other than:

When I go for a Masterplan, even with five or more dice, the roll will be LOW.

If I could go for it (say 3 or 4 dice), but decline, trouble will be around 6 (minimum)

blush
1 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
G√ľnter Immeyer
Germany
Essen
flag msg tools
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
Here you go, math and statistics lovers - The expectation values for threat level rolls are as follows:

without dice boosting

3 dice: 3
4 dice: 4
5 dice: 5
6 dice: 6
7 dice: 7
8 dice: 8

...not too exciting, huh?

with dice boosting

3 dice: 3.5
4 dice: 4.67 (4 and 2/3, to be exact)
5 dice: 5.83 (5 and 5/6)
6 dice: 7
7 dice: 8.17 (8 and 1/6)
8 dice: 9.33 (9 and 1/3)
4 
 Thumb up
1.00
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls
The Grouch
United States
Tucson
Arizona
flag msg tools
badge
Avatar
mbmbmbmbmb
If you want to take this a step further, check out http://boardgamegeek.com/filepage/21480/troubleshooting_v4-p..., which cross references each headline (and threat/trouble potential) with each hero or combination of heroes to see which is the best to send against a headline.
2 
 Thumb up
 tip
 Hide
  • [+] Dice rolls